Mapping the Envelope of Social Simulation Trajectories

Abstract

In this paper we present a methodology aimed at systematically exploring the shape of the ‘envelope’ of simulation trajectories and the implicit theory that a simulation represents. Thus it complements methods like Monte Carlo analysis, the inspection of single scenarios and syntactical proof. We propose a method for searching for tendencies and proving their necessity relative to a range of parameterisations of the model and agents’ choices, and to the logic of the simulation language. This will allow us to dig up conclusions about tendencies for that fragment of the simulation theory given by the explored subspace of trajectories. Additionally, we propose and exemplifies a computational procedure that helps implement this exploration by translating the MAS simulation into a constraint-based search over possible trajectories by ‘compiling’ the simulation rules into a more specific form.