Global Aging and Pensionomics

Part of the Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems book series (LNE, volume 572)


Pension System Baby Boom Demographic Transition Pension Scheme Global Aging 
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  1. 1.
    This mostly follows Fogel and Costa [1997], whose Table 1 highlights the dramatic growth in population started in 1700. Currais [2000] and Weir [1987] provide deeper understanding on the history of population economics.Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    The theory of demographic transition has been substantially formed by Notestein [1945] and enlarged by Blacker [1947].Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Other major contributions are Easterlin [1968], Becker and Lewi [1973], and Becker [1991]. Willis [1987] provides a summary on New Home Economics. The formation of “quality” children, i.e. qualified workers, gave rise to the emphasis on human capital formation; see Schultz [1961, 1963, 1974], Becker [1962, 1993], or Becker and Tomes [1986]. Barro and Becker [1989], Becker et al. [1990], Rosenzweig [1990] and others linked this to economic growth. As will be argued later the view of investment in human capital in the sense of forming qualified working is not adressed here.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    See for instance Brown [1992].Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Figures are based on United Nations [2004a, p. 3] and United Nations [2005a, p. 6]. Other international sources on population forecasts are United Nations [1999], Donaldson [1999], Haupt and Kane [2004] or U.S. Census Bureau [2004]. Pötzsch and Sommer [2003] focuses on Germany and Day [1996] on the United States.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    For details on all aspects of population projections see United Nations [2005a,b,c,d], where all the demographic figures are taken from.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Other definitions of the ratio, sometimes also referred to as old-age ratio, include the population of ages between 15 and 59 only. In this sense the figures here are rather conservative. The old-age dependency ratio and the youth dependency ratio-persons under 15 per persons aged 15–64 — sum to the total dependency ratio. These indicators give insight into the amount of people of non-working age compared to the amount of people of working-age. Another measure for the pure aging effect is the age-index as the number of persons of 60 years or older per hundred persons under age 15. For more definitions of indicators see United Nations [2005a, p. 41–42].Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Further indicators of past and future aging can be found in United Nations [2001] or Kinsella and Velkoff [2001], but also general population forecast like United Nations [2005a] emphasize this issue. Birg [2003] provides an overview over the subject focussing on Europe and Germany.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    The concept of the Second Demographic Transition has been introduced by Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa [1986]. See also Lesthaeghe and Neels [2002] and Lesthaeghe and Surkyn [2004].Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    See also Fogel [1997] and Fogel and Costa [1997]. Fogel [2003] relates the changes of the Technophysio Evolution to health care costs and intergenerational conflicts. A summary of the longevity issue is found in Vaupel [1998].Google Scholar
  11. 12.
    See ISSA [2003a,b, 2004a,b] for a detailed description of social security systems in the world. Kinsella and Phillips [2005] gives a detailed breakdown of the challenges of aging in pensions, health care, disability and well-being. Given its importance the social security issue is in the focus of most publications on aging, like Chand and Jaeger [1996], Lee and Skinner [1999], Mackenzie et al. [2001], Holzmann and Stiglitz [2001], European Commission [2001], Kinsella and Velkoff [2001], Jackson [2002], Dunaway and N’Diaye [2004], or Holzmann [2004].Google Scholar
  12. 13.
    See Holzmann and Hinz [2005, p. 61–63]. Holzmann [2000] provides an assessment of the historic correlation of the various pillars’ returns. The prospects on reform of the U.S. Social Security System has revitalized the discussion: see Lindbeck and Persson [2003] Shiller [2003b], Nataraj and Shoven [2003] or Modigliani and Muralidhar [2004]. Note furthermore that occupational pensions do not represent a pillar per se, but constitute merely a convenient implementation form for the mandatory saving accounts in the second pillar.Google Scholar
  13. 14.
    Other contributions also assessing the impact of cohort sizes on asset markets are Bakshi and Chen [1994], Schieber and Shoven [1994], Yoo [1997], Bergantino [1998], Geanakoplos et al. [2002], or Davis and Li [2003]. Comments on Porterba’s [2001] landmark article include Abel [2001] emphasizing the role of bequests and Campbell [2001] pointing out the rather constant aggregate saving rate. According to Porterba [2004] the current empirical findings are limited but suggest a modest impact of demography on asset values and returns.Google Scholar

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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

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