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Validating a Dynamic Microsimulation Model of the Italian Households

  • Carlo Bianchi
  • Marzia Romanelli
  • Pietro A. Vagliasindi
Part of the Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems book series (LNE, volume 551)

Summary

The recent literature — including among others Redmond et al. [22], Gupta and Kapur [13], Mitton et al. [19] — has highlighted model alignment and validation as crucial issues to be tackled when microsimulating the consequences of public policies. This paper discusses some preliminary validation experiments performed on the model inputs, procedures and simulation results. The validation process that we use involves external checks, such as the ex-post comparison (from 1996 since 1999) of aggregated key macro variables (e.g. dependent workers’ incomes, and demographic variables) with official data (e.g. supplied by the Italian National Institute for Statistics ISTAT) at national and at regional level (North, Centre and South). We test the appropriateness of the main assumptions and specification of the model and policies’ effectiveness also using Monte Carlo simulations. Specifically, our analysis allows us to test MIND’s ability in forecasting demographic and economic trends and in capturing socio-economic dynamics for regional areas.

Key words

microsimulation retirement choice validation 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2005

Authors and Affiliations

  • Carlo Bianchi
    • 1
  • Marzia Romanelli
    • 2
  • Pietro A. Vagliasindi
    • 3
  1. 1.University of PisaPisa
  2. 2.Sant’Anna School of Advanced StudiesItaly
  3. 3.University of ParmaParma

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