Abstract
In this paper the approach of combining predictions is used to benefit from the advantages of forecasts predicting on different levels, to reduce the risks of high noise terms on low level predictions and overgeneralization on higher levels. The presented experimentally compared approaches of combining seasonal airline demand forecasts differ concerning input decomposition, multilevel structures, combination models and kinds of aggregation. Significant forecast improvements have been obtained when using multilevel, hierarchical structures.
Keywords
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution.
Buying options
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Learn about institutional subscriptionsPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Russell, T.D. and E.E. Adam (1987). An empirical evaluation of alternative forecast combinations. European Journal of Operations Research 33, 1267–1276
De Menezes, Lilian M. et al. (2000). Review of guidelines for the use of combined forecasts. Management Science 120, 190–204
Shan, M.S. et al. (1999). Improving the accuracy of nonlinear combined forecasting using neural networks. Expert Systems with Applications 16, 49–54
Fiordaliso, A. (1998). A nonlinear forecasts combination method based on Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy systems. International Journal of Forecasting 14, 367–379
Bunn, E.W. (1985). Statistical efficiency on the linear combination of forecasts. International Journal of Forecasting 1, 151–163
Jang, J.-S.R. (1993). ANFIS: Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference Systems. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics 23, 665–685
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2005 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this paper
Cite this paper
Riedel, S., Gabrys, B. (2005). Hierarchical Multilevel Approaches of Forecast Combination. In: Fleuren, H., den Hertog, D., Kort, P. (eds) Operations Research Proceedings 2004. Operations Research Proceedings, vol 2004. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27679-3_59
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/3-540-27679-3_59
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-24274-1
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-27679-1
eBook Packages: Business and EconomicsBusiness and Management (R0)