Trend-Weighted Fuzzy Time-Series Model for TAIEX Forecasting
Time-series models have been used to make reasonably accurate predictions in the areas of weather forecasting, academic enrolment and stock price etc... We propose a methodology which incorporates trend-weighting into the fuzzy time-series models advanced by S.M. Chen and Hui-Kuang Yu. By using actual trading data of Taiwan Stock Index (TAIEX) and the enrolment data of the University of Alabama, we evaluate the accuracy of our trend-weighted, fuzzy, time-series model by comparing our forecasts with those derived from Chen’s and Yu’s models. The results indicate that our model surpasses in accuracy those suggested by Chen and Yu.
KeywordsForecast Error Fuzzy Relationship Reasonable Universe Fuzzy Logical Relationship Stock Index Forecast
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