Forecasting GDP in China and Efficient Input Interval
In this paper we first give a new method of time series model to forecast GDP of China. The method proposed here aims to emphasis the importance of the impact of STEP-Affair on the GDP forecasting. The superiority of the method to ARMA model is illustrated in an example presented accordingly. Then in the system of whole economic when the GDP forecasted above is given, how can we allocate the limited resources to make the economical behavior relative efficient. We use data envelopment analysis to show how to determine input interval. Each input among the input interval as well as the given output constitute an efficient decision making unit (DMU). For decision makers the techniques are very important in decision making, especially in macroeconomic policies making in China.
KeywordsGross Domestic Product Data Envelopment Analysis Time Series Analysis Time Series Model Decision Make Unit
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