Forecasting Electricity Market Price Spikes Based on Bayesian Expert with Support Vector Machines
This paper present a hybrid numeric method that integrates a Bayesian statistical method for electricity price spikes classification determination and a Bayesian expert (BE) is described for data mining with experience decision analysis approach. The combination of experience knowledge and support vector machine (SVM) modeling with a Bayesian classification, which can classify the spikes and normal electricity prices, are developed. Bayesian prior distribution and posterior distribution knowledge are used to evaluate the performance of parameters in the SVM models. Electricity prices of one regional electricity market (REM) in China are used to test the proposed method, experimental results are shown.
KeywordsSupport Vector Machine Support Vector Machine Model Mean Absolute Percentage Error Electricity Price ARIMA Model
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