A Software Reliability Model Based on a Geometric Sequence of Failure Rates

  • Stefan Wagner
  • Helmut Fischer
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 4006)


Software reliability models are an important tool in quality management and release planning. There is a large number of different models that often exhibit strengths in different areas. This paper proposes a model that is based on a geometric sequence (or progression) of the failure rates of faults. This property of the failure process was observed in practice at Siemens among others and led to the development of the proposed model. It is described in detail and evaluated using standard criteria. Most importantly, the model performs constantly well over several projects in terms of its predictive validity.


Failure Rate Predictive Validity Software Reliability Calendar Time Failure Data 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
    Adams, E.N.: Optimizing Preventive Service of Software Products. IBM Journal of Research and Development 28(1), 2–14 (1984)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. 2.
    Farr, W.H., Smith, O.D.: Statistical Modeling and Estimation of Reliability Functions for Software (SMERFS) Users Guide. Technical Report NAVSWC TR-84-373, Naval Surface Weapons Center (1993)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Jelinski, Z., Moranda, P.B.: Software Reliability Research. In: Freiberger, W. (ed.) Statistical Computer Performance Evaluation. Academic Press, London (1972)Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Littlewood, B., Verall, J.L.: A Bayesian Reliability Growth Model for Computer Software. Applied Statistics 22(3), 332–346 (1973)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Miller, D.R.: Exponential Order Statistic Models of Software Reliability. IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering 12(1), 332–346 (1986)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Musa, J.D., Iannino, A., Okumoto, K.: Software Reliability: Measurement, Prediction, Application. McGraw-Hill, New York (1987)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Musa, J.D., Okumoto, K.: A Logarithmic Poisson Execution Time Model for Software Reliability Measurement. In: Proc. Seventh International Conference on Software Engineering (ICSE 1984), pp. 230–238 (1984)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Nagel, P.M., Scholz, F.W., Skrivan, J.A.: Software Reliability: Additional Investigations into Modeling with Replicated Experiments. NASA Contractor Rep. 172378, NASA Langley Res. Center (June 1984)Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Nagel, P.M., Skrivan, J.A.: Software Reliability: Repetitive Run Experimentation and Modeling. NASA Contractor Rep. 165836, NASA Langley Res. Center (February 1982)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    Nelder, J.A., Mead, R.: A Simplex Method for Function Minimization. The Computer Journal 7(4), 308–313 (1965)MATHGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Pham, H.: Software Reliability. Springer, Heidelberg (2000)MATHGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Wagner, S., Fischer, H.: A Software Reliability Model Based on a Geometric Sequence of Failure Rates. Technical Report TUMI-0520, Institut für Informatik, Technische Universität München (2005)Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Wagner, S., Seifert, T.: Software Quality Economics for Defect-Detection Techniques Using Failure Prediction. In: Proc. 3rd Workshop on Software Quality (3-WoSQ). ACM Press, New York (2005)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Stefan Wagner
    • 1
  • Helmut Fischer
    • 2
  1. 1.Institut für InformatikTechnische Universität MünchenGarching b. MünchenGermany
  2. 2.Siemens AG, COM E QPP PSOMünchenGermany

Personalised recommendations