Local Neural Networks of Space-Time Predicting Modeling for Lattice Data in GIS
Lattice data have two different scale spatial properties: global depen- dence property and local fluctuation property. For lattice data space-time autoregressive modeling, to reduce influence of spatial fluctuation on prediction accuracy of neural networks, all regions are partitioned into several subareas by an improved k-means algorithm based on spatial contiguity relation. Some partition criteria are proposed to evaluate different partition schemes and the optimal scheme has the least spatial fluctuation and significant spatial dependent within each subarea. Each multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) network is modeled respectively for each subarea, and the output nodes are the prediction values at time t of an attribute for all regions in a subarea, and the input nodes are observations before time t of this subarea itself and neighboring regions. As a case study, all local models are tested and compared with a single global MLPs network by one-step-ahead predicting of an epidemic dataset, and the results indicate that local NN model has better prediction performance than the global NN model.
KeywordsLattice Data Output Node Input Node Partition Scheme Spatial Fluctuation
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