Abstract
Bio-terror events are accompanied by severe uncertainty: great disparity between the best available data and models, and the actual course of events. We model this uncertainty with non-probabilistic information-gap models of uncertainty. This paper focuses on info-gaps in epidemiological models, in particular, info-gaps in the rate of infection. robustness to uncertainty is defined as a function of the required critical morbidity resulting from the attack. We show how preferences among available interventions are deduced from the robustness function. We demonstrate the irrevocable trade-off between robustness and demanded performance, and show that best-estimated performance has zero robustness. Finally, we present a theorem concerning the reversal of preferences between available interventions, and illustrate it with a numerical example.
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© 2006 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
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Yoffe, A., Ben-Haim, Y. (2006). An Info-Gap Approach to Policy Selection for Bio-terror Response. In: Mehrotra, S., Zeng, D.D., Chen, H., Thuraisingham, B., Wang, FY. (eds) Intelligence and Security Informatics. ISI 2006. Lecture Notes in Computer Science, vol 3975. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/11760146_56
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/11760146_56
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-540-34478-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-540-34479-7
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