An Info-Gap Approach to Policy Selection for Bio-terror Response

  • Anna Yoffe
  • Yakov Ben-Haim
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 3975)


Bio-terror events are accompanied by severe uncertainty: great disparity between the best available data and models, and the actual course of events. We model this uncertainty with non-probabilistic information-gap models of uncertainty. This paper focuses on info-gaps in epidemiological models, in particular, info-gaps in the rate of infection. robustness to uncertainty is defined as a function of the required critical morbidity resulting from the attack. We show how preferences among available interventions are deduced from the robustness function. We demonstrate the irrevocable trade-off between robustness and demanded performance, and show that best-estimated performance has zero robustness. Finally, we present a theorem concerning the reversal of preferences between available interventions, and illustrate it with a numerical example.


Infection Volume Epidemiological Model Policy Selection Robustness Function Critical Infection 
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2006

Authors and Affiliations

  • Anna Yoffe
    • 1
  • Yakov Ben-Haim
    • 2
  1. 1.Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringTechnionHaifaIsrael
  2. 2.Yitzhak Moda’i Chair in Technology and Economics, Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringTechnionHaifaIsrael

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