A Neural Network Approach to m-Daily-Ahead Electricity Price Prediction
This paper proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict m-daily-ahead electricity price using direct forecasting approach on European Energy Exchange (EEX) market. The most important characteristic of this model is the single output node for m-period-ahead forecasts. The potentials of ANNs are investigated by employing cross-validation schemes. Out-of-sample performance evaluated with three criteria across five forecasting horizons shows that the proposed ANNs are more robust multi-step-ahead forecasting method than autoregressive error models (AUTOREG). Moreover, ANN predictions are quite accurate even when the length of forecast horizon is relatively short or long.
KeywordsArtificial Neural Network Model Electricity Price Input Node ARIMA Model Neural Network Approach
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