Abstract
In recent years, predictive modelling of plant species’ distribution has been shown to be a powerful method for obtaining preliminary assessments of potential ecological impact of rapid climatic change (e.g. Brzeziecki et al. 1995; Kienast et al. 1996; Saetersdal and Birks 1997; Iverson and Prasad 1998; Lischke et al. 1998; Gottfried et al. 1999; Guisan and Theurillat 2000; 2001; Bakkenes et al. 2002). Such models give static results: they reveal where suitable species’ habitats might be located in a climatically changed future, but they do not explicitly consider all the processes leading to the predicted changes. A basic assumption behind their application is thus to consider present and future distributions of species to be in equilibrium, or at least in pseudo-equilibrium, with their environment (Guisan and Theurillat 2000). Although this assumption obviously does not hold in all ecological situations, scenarios obtained from these models nevertheless constitute an interesting spatially-explicit and quantitative basis for discussing how climate change might impact plant distribution. Examples of such discussions are provided in the next section.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Austin, M. P. (2002). Spatial prediction of species distribution: An interface between ecological theory and statistical modelling. Ecological Modelling 157, 101–118.
Bakkenes, M., Alkemade, J. R. M., Ihle, F., Leemans, R., and Latour, J. B. (2002). Assessing the effects of forecasted climate change on the diversity and distribution of European higher plants for 2050. Global Change Biology 8, 390–407.
Binz, H. R., and Wildi, O. (1988). “Das Simulationsmodell MaB-Davos.” Schlussbericht Schweiz. MaB-Programm Nr. 33, Bundesamt für Umweltschutz, Bern.
Brzeziecki, B., Kienast, F., and Wildi, O. (1995). Modeling potential impacts of climate change on the spatial distribution of zonal forest communities in Switzerland. Journal of Vegetation Science 6, 257–258.
Carnelli, A. L. (2002). “Evolution of the vegetation at the subalpine-alpine ecocline during the Holocene: Comparative study in the Aletsch region, Val d’Arpette and Furkapass (Valais, Switzerland).” Unpublished PhD Thesis, University of Geneva.
Chuine, I., Cambon G., and Comtois, P. (2000). Scaling phenology from the local to the regional level: Advances from species-specific phenological models. Global Change Biology? 6, 943–952.
Chuine, I., and Beaubien, E. G. (2001). Phenology is a major determinant of tree species range. Ecology Letters 4, 500–510.
Fischer, H. S. (1990). Simulating the distribution of plant communities in an alpine landscape. Coenoses 5, 37–43.
Fitter, A. H., and Fitter, R. S. R. (2002). Rapid change in flowering time in British plants. Science 296, 1689–1691.
Gottfried, M., Pauli, H., Reitter, K., and Grabherr, G. (1999). A fine-scaled predictive model for changes in species distribution patterns of high mountain plants induced by climate wanning. Diversity and Distributions 5, 241–251.
Grabherr, G., Gottfried, M., and Pauli, H. (1994). Climate effects on mountain plants. Nature 369, 448.
Grime, J. P. (1977). Evidence for the existence of three life history strategies in plants and its relevance to ecological and evolutionary theory. American Naturalist 111, 1169–1194.
Guisan, A., Theurillat, J.-R., and Kienast, F. (1998). Predicting the potential distribution of plant species in an alpine environment. Journal of Vegetation Science 9, 65–74.
Guisan, A., and Theurillat, J.-P. (2000). Equilibrium modelling of alpine plant distribution and climate change: How far can we go? Phytocoenologia 30, 353–384.
Guisan, A., and Zimmermann, N. E. (2000). Predictive habitat distribution models in ecology. Ecological Modelling 135, 147–186.
Guisan, A., and Theurillat, J.-P. (2001). Assessing alpine plant vulnerability to climate change: A modeling perspective. Integrated Assessment 1, 307–320.
Guisan, A., Edwards, T. C., and Hastie, T. (2002). Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distribution: Setting the scene. Ecological Modelling 157, 89–100.
Hughes, L. (2000). Biological consequences of global warming: Is the signal already apparent? TREE 15, 56–61.
Huntley, B. (1991). How plant respond to climate change: Migration rates, individualism and the consequences for plant communities. Annals of Botany 67, 15–22.
Huntley, B., Berry, P. M., Cramer, W., and McDonald, A. P. (1995). Modelling present and potential future ranges of some European higher plants using climate response surfaces. Journal of Biogeography 22, 967–1001.
Iverson, L. R., and Prasad, A. M. (1998). Predicting abundance of 80 tree species following climate change in the eastern United States. Ecological Monographs 68, 465–485.
Keller, F. (1992). Automated mapping of mountain permafrost using the program PERMAKART within the geographical information system ARC/INFO. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes 3, 133–138.
Kienast, F., Wildi, O., and Brzeziecki, B. (1996). Potential impacts of climate change on species richness in mountain forests — An ecological risk assessment. Biological Conservation 83, 291–305.
Körner, C. (2001). Why are there global gradient in species richness? Mountains might hold the answer. TREE 15, 513–514.
Lischke, H., Guisan, A., Fischlin, A., and Bugmann, H. (1998). Vegetation response to climate change in the Alps: Modeling studies. In “Views from the Alps: Regional perspectives on climate change.” (P. Cebon, U. Dahinden, H. C. Davies, D. Imboden, and C. C. Jaeger, Eds.), pp. 309–350. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Menzel, A., and Fabian, P. (1999). Growing season extended in Europe. Nature 397, 659.
Myneni, R. B., Keeling, C. D., Tucker, C. J., Asrar, G., and Nemani, R. R. (1997). Increased plant growth in the northern high latitudes from 1981 to 1991. Nature 386, 698–702.
Penuelas, J., and Filella, I. (2001). Responses to a warming world. Science 294, 793–795.
Rupp, T. S., Chapin III, F. S., and Starfield, A. M. (2001). Modelling the influence of topographic barriers on treeline advance at the forest-tundra ecotone in Northwestern Canada. Climatic Change 48, 399–416.
Saetersdal, M., and Birks, H. J. B. (1997). A comparative ecological study of Norwegian mountain plants in relation to possible future climatic change. Journal of Biogeography 24, 127–152.
Schlüssel, A. (1999). Phàéologie, diversité et structure de la végétation dans l’écocline subalpin-alpin. Ph.D. thesis, University of Geneva.
Steinger, T., Körner, C., and Schmid, B. (1996). Long-term persistance in a changing climate: DNA analysis suggests very old ages of clones of alpine Carex curvula. Oecologia 105, 94–99.
Theurillat, J.-R., Felber, F., Geissler, P., Gobat, J.-M., Fierz, M., Fischlin, A., Kupfer, P., Schlüssel, A., Velutti, C., and Zhao, G.-F. (1998). Sensitivity of plant and soils ecosystems of the Alps to climate change. In “Views from the Alps: Regional perspectives on climate change.” (P. Cebon, U. Dahinden, H. C. Davies, D. Imboden, and C. C. Jaeger, Eds.), pp. 225–308. MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Theurillat, J.-R., and Schlüssel, A. (2000). Phenology and distribution strategy of key plant species within the subalpine-alpine ecocline in the Valaisian Alps (Switzerland). Phytocoenologia 30, 439–456.
Theurillat, J. P., and Guisan, A. (2001). Potential impact of climate change on vegetation in the European Alps: A review. Climatic Change 50, 77–109. See also the Erratum 53 (2002), 529–530.
Wagner, J., and Reichegger, B. (1997). Phenology and seed development of the alpine sedges Carex curvula and Carex firma in response to contrasting topoclimates. Arctic and Alpine Research 29, 291–299.
Walther, G.-R., Post, E., Convey, P., Menzel, A., Parmesan, C., Beebee, T. J. C., Fromentin, J.-M., Hoegh-Guldberg, O., and Bairlein, F. (2002). Ecological responses to recent climate change. Nature 416, 389–395.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2005 Springer
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Guisan, A., Theurillat, JP. (2005). Monitoring Networks for Testing Model-Based Scenarios of Climate Change Impact on Mountain Plant Distribution. In: Huber, U.M., Bugmann, H.K.M., Reasoner, M.A. (eds) Global Change and Mountain Regions. Advances in Global Change Research, vol 23. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3508-X_47
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/1-4020-3508-X_47
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-1-4020-3507-4
Online ISBN: 978-1-4020-3508-1
eBook Packages: Earth and Environmental ScienceEarth and Environmental Science (R0)