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Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries pp 1–32Cite as

A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality

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Part of the book series: European Studies of Population ((ESPO,volume 9))

Abstract

The goal of Chapter 1 is to describe and comment on the methods and approaches that have been in use or have emerged in recent years. Section 1.1 introduces the most common classifications of forecasting models for mortality. Section 1.2 is devoted to a brief historical review of parameterisation functions. In this context, attention is paid to prediction based on parameterised age schedules, in particular by using time series models. Section 1.3 focuses on the (statistical association) models of Lee and Carter and Section 1.4 characterises the (log-linear) age-period-cohort models. In Section 1.5 the reader can find a review of the methods used in international statistical practice and in Section 1.6 the importance of uncertainty in forecasting is addressed. Section 1.7 outlines the prospects for modelling and forecasting mortality as seen from the perspective of this chapter.

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Authors
  1. Ewa Tabeau
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), The Hague, The Netherlands

    Ewa Tabeau

  2. National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), Bilthoven, The Netherlands

    Anneke van den Berg Jeths

  3. Australian National University, Canberra, Australia

    Christopher Heathcote

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© 2001 Kluwer Academic Publishers

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Tabeau, E. (2001). A Review of Demographic Forecasting Models for Mortality. In: Tabeau, E., van den Berg Jeths, A., Heathcote, C. (eds) Forecasting Mortality in Developed Countries. European Studies of Population, vol 9. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-0-7923-6833-5

  • Online ISBN: 978-0-306-47562-7

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