A Practical Guide to Small-Area Projections

Conclusions

The guidelines presented in this chapter cannot answer every question and solve every problem that might be encountered when making small-area population projections. Every set of circumstances is unique in one way or another, with a variety of factors that must be considered during the projection process. In addition, not every guideline will be relevant in every situation. However, there are a number of commonalities shared by all small-area projections that provide a basis for developing a general set of guidelines that are applicable in a wide variety of settings.

Following these guidelines will not guarantee the accuracy of population forecasts, of course. Even the most brilliant analyst—armed with high-quality data, sophisticated models, and extensive knowledge of the area—may produce forecasts that turn out to be wildly inaccurate in some instances. We offer no crystal balls, no magic potions, and no guarantees. However, we believe that these guidelines can help the analyst focus on the relevant issues, make reasonable choices, and avoid common mistakes. These are modest accomplishments, perhaps, but they provide some degree of comfort to the analyst facing the sometimes daunting task of constructing a set of small-area population projections.