Abstract
This chapter explores the impacts of climate change, human population growth and expected disease control activities on tsetse distribution and trypanosomiasis risk in five agro-ecological environments in sub-Saharan Africa to 2050. These changes will tend to contract areas under trypanosomiasis risk continent-wide; however, this trend will not be uniform. The greatest decrease in the impacts of animal trypanosomiasis will occur in the semi-arid and sub-humid zones of West Africa, where the climate will be drier, human population will increase and disease control will have greater impacts. The risk of animal trypanosomiasis will also decline in many but not all areas of Ethiopia and eastern and southern Africa. The disease situation in the humid zone of central and western Africa will be less changed. Sleeping sickness, particularly the gambiense type, will continue, as now, to be a major problem, if concerted control efforts are not implemented.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Budd L.T. 1999. DFID-funded tsetse and trypanosomiasis research and development since 1980. Vol. 2 — Economic Analysis. DFID, London, 123p.
Cullen M.J.P. 1993. The unified forecast/climate model. Meteorological Magazine 122:81–95.
Deichmann U. 1996. Africa Population Database, Digital Database and Documentation. University of California, Santa Barbara, USA.
FAO (1978). Report on the Agro-Ecological Zones Project. Volume 1, Methodology and Results for Africa. World Soil Resources Report 48, Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
Foote K.A., K.H. Hill, and L.G. Martin (eds.). 1993. Demographic change in sub-Saharan Africa. National Academy Press, Washington D.C.
Ford J., and K.M. Katondo. 1977. Maps of tsetse fly (Glossina) distribution in Africa, 1973, according to sub-generic groups on a scale of 1:5,000,000. Bulletin of Animal Health and Production in Africa 15:188–193.
Jones P.G. 1987. Current availability and deficiencies in data relevant to agroecological studies in the geographic area covered by the IARCS. In Agricultural Environments: Characterisation, classification and mapping, A.H. Bunting (ed.). CAB International, Wallingford, UK. p. 69–83.
Jones P.G., and Thornton P.K. 2000. MarkSim: Software to generate daily weather data for Latin America and Africa. Agronomy Journal 92:445–453.
Jordan A.M. 1986. Trypanosomiasis Control and African Rural Development. Longman, London, 357p.
Kristjanson, P.M., B.M. Swallow, G.J. Rowlands, R.L. Kruska, and P.N. de Leeuw. 1999. Measuring the costs of African animal trypanosomiasis, the potential benefits of control and returns to research. Agricultural Systems 59:79–98.
McDermott J., and P. Coleman. 2001. Comparing apples and oranges — model based assessment of different tsetse-transmitted trypanosomiasis control strategies. International Journal of Parasitology (in press).
NOAA (National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration). 1984. TGP-OO6 D. Computer compatible tape. NOAA, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
Ormerod W.E. 1990. Africa with and without tsetse. Insect Science Applications 11: 455–461.
Reader J. 1997. Mica: A Biography of the Continent. Hamish Hamilton, London, 803p.
Reid R.S., R.L. Kruska, U. Deichmann, P.K. Thornton, and S.G.A. Leak. 2000. Human population growth and the extinction of the tsetse fly. Agricultural Ecosystems & Environment 77:227–236.
Robinson T.P., D.J. Rogers, and B. Williams. 1997. Univariate analysis of tsetse habitat in the common fly belt of Southern Africa using climate and remotely sensed vegetation data. Medical and Veterinary Entomology 11:223–234.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2002 Kluwer Academic Publishers
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
McDermott, J. et al. (2002). Effects of Climate, Human Population and Socio-economic Changes on Tsetse-transmitted Trypanosomiasis to 2050. In: The African Trypanosomes. World Class Parasites, vol 1. Springer, Boston, MA. https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-46894-8_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/0-306-46894-8_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Boston, MA
Print ISBN: 978-0-7923-7512-8
Online ISBN: 978-0-306-46894-0
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive