Climate Resilient Cotton Production System: A Case Study in Pakistan

  • Muhammad Habib ur RahmanEmail author
  • Ishfaq Ahmad
  • Abdul Ghaffar
  • Ghulam Haider
  • Ashfaq Ahmad
  • Burhan Ahmad
  • Muhammad Tariq
  • Wajid Nasim
  • Ghulam Rasul
  • Shah Fahad
  • Shakeel Ahmad
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom


Cotton production is most vulnerable to climate change particularly in Pakistan, and sustainable cotton yield is critical to accomplish the future demand of the country. Climate change has negative impact on cotton production in major parts of the cotton-growing regions. It hampers not only the yield but also quality of fiber and has negative impact on socioeconomic conditions of farmers. Climate, crop, and economic multidisciplinary modeling approach are being used to assess the impact of climate change and development of adaptation strategies for sustainable cotton production. Climate change scenarios revealed the increase in both maximum and minimum temperature and uncertain rainfall patterns throughout the world and especially in dry and arid areas of the world like Pakistan. Rainfall would increase and decrease as projected by multi-GCMs and RCPs, and it is fact that these changes in climate would lead to negative effect on cotton crop production, and sustainable cotton production in the future is under threat due to climate variablity. Generally, mostly general circulation model (GCM) scenario projected the reduction in cotton yield as compared with the baseline during both timer periods and RCPs tested. Adaptation strategies can minimize the negative impact of climate change. So, changes in crop management practices (sowing, planting density, irrigation, and plant protection) may be good adaptation strategies for sustainable cotton production under changing climate scenarios of the world. Climate resilient cotton production system has potential to minimize the negative impacts of climate change on cotton crop by developing heat and drought resilient germplasm, mitigation technology to reduce GHG emission, and application of decision support system (DSS) and use of ICT-based technologies for sustainable cotton crop production. It is time to adopt climate, energy, and water smart cotton production technologies and practices for sustainable cotton production in the future.


Climate change Phenology Adaptation Resilient Sustainable DSSAT 



Arid irrigated zone


Bee vectoring technology


Carbon dioxide


Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer


General circulation models


Greenhouse gas


Geographical information system


Information and communication technologies


Integrated pest management


Representative concentration pathways


Solar radiation


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© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2020

Authors and Affiliations

  • Muhammad Habib ur Rahman
    • 1
    • 2
    Email author
  • Ishfaq Ahmad
    • 3
  • Abdul Ghaffar
    • 1
  • Ghulam Haider
    • 1
  • Ashfaq Ahmad
    • 4
  • Burhan Ahmad
    • 5
  • Muhammad Tariq
    • 6
  • Wajid Nasim
    • 7
  • Ghulam Rasul
    • 5
    • 8
  • Shah Fahad
    • 9
    • 10
  • Shakeel Ahmad
    • 11
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom
    • 12
  1. 1.Department of AgronomyMuhammad Nawaz Shareef University of AgricultureMultanPakistan
  2. 2.Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES) Crop Science GroupUniversity BonnBonnGermany
  3. 3.Centre for Climate Research and DevelopmentCOMSATS UniversityIslamabadPakistan
  4. 4.Climate Change, US-Pakistan Centre for Advanced Studies in Agriculture and Food Security, Department of AgronomyUniversity of AgricultureFaisalabadPakistan
  5. 5.Pakistan Meteorological DepartmentIslamabadPakistan
  6. 6.Central Cotton Research InstituteMultanPakistan
  7. 7.Department of AgronomyUniversity College of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, Islamia University of BahawalpurBahawalpurPakistan
  8. 8.International Center for Integrated Mountain DevelopmentKathmanduNepal
  9. 9.Department of AgricultureUniversity of SwabiSwabiPakistan
  10. 10.College of Plant Science and TechnologyHuazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhanPeople’s Republic of China
  11. 11.Department of Agronomy, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and TechnologyBahauddin Zakariya UniversityMultanPakistan
  12. 12.Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems (ISFS)University of FloridaGainesvilleUSA

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