TERM-H2O Modeling of Droughts in Australia and California
Chapter
First Online:
Abstract
In the early years of implementation of Australia’s 2007 Water Act, analysis with TERM-H2O put water policy into perspective. Drought resulted in economic hardship, whereas legislated water buybacks provided farmers with an adjustment option. TERM-H2O predicted with reasonable accuracy the impact of abnormally dry or wet years on irrigation water prices within the Murray-Darling Basin. The theory of TERM-H2O was introduced to a version of USAGE-TERM modified to depict the impact of drought on California. The unsustainable use of ground-water in response to the Californian drought indicates a need for water policy reforms in the state.
Keywords
Drought impacts Water reforms Farm factor mobility Water tradingReferences
- ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) (2008) Water and the Murray Darling Basin: a statistical profile, 2000–01 to 2005–06. Catalogue 4610.0.55.007Google Scholar
- ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) (2009a) Water use on Australian farms, 2007–08. Catalogue 4618.0Google Scholar
- ABS (Australian Bureau of Statistics) (2009b) Value of agricultural commodities produced, 2007–08. Catalogue 7503.0Google Scholar
- Adamson D, Loch A (2014) The latest Murray-Darling plan could leave farmers high and dry. https://theconversation.com/the-latest-murray-darling-plan-could-leave-farmers-high-and-dry-27450. Accessed 31 Aug 2016
- Australian Government (2007) A national plan for water security. http://nailsma.org.au/sites/default/files/publications/national_plan_water_security2007.pdf. Accessed 10 Sept 2016
- Chappelle C, Hanak E, Mount J (2015) Reforming California’s groundwater management. PPIC Water Policy Center. http://www.ppic.org/main/publication_show.asp?i=1106. Accessed 9 Sept 2016
- COAG (1994) Water reform framework. http://webarchive.nla.gov.au/gov/20130904083606/. http://www.environment.gov.au/water/publications/action/policyframework.html. Accessed 9 Sept 2016
- Davidson B (1969) Australia wet or dry? The physical and economic limits to the expansion of irrigation. Melbourne University Press, MelbourneGoogle Scholar
- Delaney A (2010) Massive water meeting for Griffith. http://www.abc.net.au/local/stories/2010/10/15/3039023.htm. Accessed 31 Aug 2016
- Dixon P, Rimmer M (2010) You can’t have a CGE recession without excess capacity. Econ Model 28:602–613CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Dixon P, Parmenter B, Sutton J, Vincent D (1982) ORANI: a multisectoral model of the Australian economy. Contributions to economic analysis 142, Amsterdam, North-HollandGoogle Scholar
- Dixon P, Rimmer M, Wittwer G (2011) Saving the Southern Murray-Darling Basin: the economic effects of a buyback of irrigation water. Econ Rec 87:153–168CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Howitt R, M’Marete M (1991) Well set aside proposal: a scenario for ground water banking. Calif Agric 45(3):6–8Google Scholar
- Howitt R, MacEwan D, Medellín-Azuara J, Lund J, Sumner, D (2015) Economic analysis of the 2015 drought. UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences ERA Economics. https://watershed.ucdavis.edu/files/biblio/Final_Drought%20Report_08182015_Full_Report_WithAppendices.pdf. Accessed 26 Sept 2018
- Kagi J (2016) Ord River project plagued by cost blowouts, delays, poor planning, auditor-general finds. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-09-07/ord-river-project-plagued-by-cost-blowouts-delays-report/7823422. Accessed 26 Sept 2018
- NSW Irrigators’ Council (2010) Submission to productivity commission: market mechanisms for recovering water in the Murray-Darling Basin. http://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/murray-darling-water-recovery/submissions/sub032.pdf. Accessed 26 Sept 2018
- Shields M (2016) Riverina mayors call for water policy rethink after SunRice slashes jobs. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-01-29/riverina-mayors-call-for-water-policy-rethink/7123112. Accessed 26 Sept 2018
- Stevens M (2016) After years without water, taps are turned on in East Porterville. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-east-porterville-20160819-snap-story.html. Accessed 26 Sept 2018
- Wheeler S, Zuo A, Bjornlund H (2014) Investigating the delayed on-farm consequences of selling water entitlements in the Murray-Darling Basin. Agric Water Manage 145:72–82CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wittwer G (2011) Confusing policy and catastrophe: Buybacks and drought in the Murray–Darling Basin. Ec Papers 30:289–295CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wittwer G (2015) From almond shaming to water trading: CGE insights into managing California’s drought. Centre of Policy Studies working paper G-258Google Scholar
- Wittwer G (ed) (2017) Multi-regional dynamic general equilibrium modeling of the U.S. economy. Springer, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
- Wittwer G, Banerjee O (2015) Investing in irrigation development in North West Queensland, Australia. Aust J Agric Res Econ 59(2):189–207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wittwer G, Dixon J (2013) Effective use of public funding in the Murray-Darling Basin: a comparison of buybacks and infrastructure upgrades. Aust J Agric Res Econ 57:399–421CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wittwer G, Griffith M (2011) Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray-Darling basin. Aust J Agric Resour Econ 49:342–359CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Wittwer G, Griffith M (2012) The economic consequences of a prolonged drought in the Southern Murray-Darling Basin. In: Wittwer G (ed) Economic modeling of water. Springer, Dordrecht, pp 119–141CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copyright information
© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2019