Long-Term Settlement of Subway Tunnel and Prediction of Settlement Trough in Coastal City Shanghai

  • Zhen-Dong CuiEmail author
  • Shan-Shan Hua
  • Jia-Sen Yan
Conference paper


Subway tunnels have shown characteristics of severe longitudinal differential settlement since the operation of subways in Shanghai. The differential settlement has an important impact on the internal force of tunnel structure and the waterproofing of joints. According to the in-site measuring data of Subway Line 1, subway tunnel in the soft area is easily prone to developing many settlement troughs with different sizes. The differential settlement in the settlement trough is noticeable, which has a seriously effect on the safety of tunnel structure and subway operation. The differential settlement in the settlement trough relates to the subway vibration load, the engineering activities, the regional land subsidence and the seasonal rain. From the point of view of time and space, the curve fitting and Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average ARIMA (p, d, q) were combined to predict the long-term settlement in the settlement trough. The Hengshan Road Station and the South Huangpi Road Station were taken as case studies. The results show that the predicted values agree well with the measured data from the perspective of time and space, which provides a new idea for the long-term settlement of subway tunnel.


Subway tunnel Long-term settlement ARIMA (p, d, q) model 



This work presented in this paper was by National key research and development program (2017YFC1500702) and the research grant (16FTUE03) from Fujian Research Center for Tunneling and Urban Underground Space Engineering (Huaqiao University).


  1. Attewell, P.B., Woodman, J.P.: Predicting the dynamics of ground settlement and its derivatives caused by tunnelling in soil. Ground Eng. 15(8), 13–22 (1982)Google Scholar
  2. Cui, Z.D., Ren, S.X.: Prediction of long-term settlements of subway tunnel in the soft soil area. Nat. Hazards 74(2), 1007–1020 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Ercelebi, S.G., Copur, H., Ocak, I.: Surface settlement predictions for Istanbul Metro tunnels excavated by EPB-TBM. Environ. Earth Sci. 62(2), 357–365 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Fang, Y.S., Lin, S.J., Lin, J.S.: Time and settlement in EPB shield tunnelling. Tunn. Tunn. 25(11), 27–28 (1993)Google Scholar
  5. Li, P., Do, S.J., Ma, X.F., et al.: Centrifuge investigation into the effect of new shield tunnelling on an existing underlying large-diameter tunnel. Tunn. Undergr. Space Technol. 42, 59–66 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. Loganathan, N., Poulos, H.G.: Analytical prediction for tunneling-induced ground movements in clays. J. Geotech. Geoenviron. Eng. 124(9), 846–856 (1998)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Liu, H.L., Li, P., Liu, J.Y.: Numerical investigation of underlying tunnel heave during a new tunnel construction. Tunn. Undergr. Space Technol. 26(2), 276–283 (2011)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Liang, R.Z., Xia, T.D., Yi, H.: Effects of above-crossing tunnelling on the existing shield tunnels. Tunn. Undergr. Space Technol. 58, 159–176 (2016)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. Mohammadi, S.D., Naseri, F., Alipoor, S.: Development of artificial neural networks and multiple regression models for the NATM tunnelling-induced settlement in Niayesh subway tunnel, Tehran. Bull. Eng. Geol. Env. 74(3), 827–843 (2015)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. Park, K.H.: Elastic solutions for tunneling-induced ground movements in clays. Int. J. Geomech. 4(4), 310–318 (2004)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. Shin, J.H., Addenbrooke, T.I., Potts, D.M.: A numerical study of the effect of groundwater movement on long-term tunnel behaviour. Geotechnique 52(6), 391–403 (2012)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Tang, Y.Q., Cui, Z.D., Wang, X.J., et al.: Model test study of land subsidence caused by high-rise building group in Shanghai. Bull. Eng. Geol. Env. 67(2), 173–179 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  13. Wu, H.N., Shen, S.L., Chai, J.C., et al.: Evaluation of train-load-induced settlement in metro tunnels. Proc. Inst. Civil Eng. Geotechn. Eng. 168(5), 396–406 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Ye, Y.D., Zhu, H.H., Wang, R.L.: Analysis on the current status of metro operating tunnel damage in soft ground and its causes. Chin. J. Undergr. Space Eng. 3(1), 157–160 (2007). (in Chinese)Google Scholar
  15. Zhu, J.F., Xu, R.Q., Liu, G.B.: Analytical prediction for tunnelling-induced ground movements in sands considering disturbance. Tunn. Undergr. Space Technol. 41, 165–175 (2014)CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2018

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering, School of Mechanics and Civil EngineeringChina University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhouPeople’s Republic of China
  2. 2.Fujian Research Center for Tunneling and Urban Underground Space EngineeringHuaqiao UniversityXiamenPeople’s Republic of China

Personalised recommendations