Realizing the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: The Role of Renewable Energies in Vietnam

  • Thanh Tu TranEmail author
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Toshihiko Masui


This study contributes to the realization of intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) by analyzing their implications for the energy production system and the economy and determines the role of renewable energies (RE) in reducing the challenge of committing to the INDCs. The Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) model was used to assess seven scenarios having the same socioeconomic development but different shares of RE in power generation. By comparing different relative reductions caused by the emission constraints vis-a-vis the business-as-usual (BaU) scenario, the mitigation costs can be estimated. Results show that the economic impact could be reduced by around 55% in terms of welfare loss (from 6.0 to 2.7%) and by around 36% in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) loss (from 3.4 to 2.1%) through the incorporation of high levels of renewable energy. Furthermore, the additional double deployment of wind and SPV to 5.4% and 12.0%, respectively, which currently comprise 43.1% of the renewable energies used in electricity generation, could reduce the GDP loss from 2.1 to 1.9% and reduce the welfare loss from 2.7 to 1.5% in order to achieve a 25.0% GHG emissions reduction. These losses are less than those in the pricing-only scenario (2.1% and 2.3%, respectively).


Energy outlook of Vietnam Intended nationally determined contribution AIM/CGE model Power development plan Renewable energies Emissions gap 



This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP16K18177, Japan.

Author Contributions

Thanh Tu Tran operated the model simulation and wrote the manuscript. Shinichiro Fujimori supported the modification and improvement of this paper. Toshihiko Masui provided the research funding.

Conflicts of Interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.


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Copyright information

© Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd. 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thanh Tu Tran
    • 1
    Email author
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
    • 2
    • 3
  • Toshihiko Masui
    • 2
  1. 1.Regional Centre of Expertise on Education for Sustainable Development in Southern VietnamInternational University—Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh CityHo Chi Minh CityVietnam
  2. 2.Center for Social and Environmental Systems ResearchNational Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)TsukubaJapan
  3. 3.International Institute for Applied Systems AnalysisLaxenburgAustria

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