Exploring the Behavior and Changing Trends of Rainfall and Temperature Using Statistical Computing Techniques

  • Abdus Salam Azad
  • Md. Kamrul Hasan
  • M. Arif Imtiazur Rahman
  • Md. Mustafizur Rahman
  • Nashid Shahriar
Chapter

Abstract

The present study aimed at quantifying the change in surface air temperature and monthly total rainfall. The changing trend was detected using Mann–Kendall trend test, seasonal Mann–Kendall trend test, and Sen’s slope estimator. K-means clustering algorithm was used to identify the rainfall distribution patterns over the years and also their changes with time. A comparative analysis was done among different time series prediction models to find out their suitability for forecasting daily temperature in climatic condition of Bangladesh. The analysis was performed using daily temperature and rainfall data of more than last 40 years (till 2009). The study found an increasing trend in maximum temperature during June to November and in minimum temperature during December to January in Bangladesh. There has been seen no significant change in rainfall over the years. However on the western side of the country, the amount of rain is significantly less than the eastern side. The study found that different prediction models were appropriate for different conditions.

Keywords

Climate change K-means clustering algorithm Mann–Kendall trend test Sen’s slope estimator Data mining Pattern recognition Time series prediction Statistical analysis 

References

  1. Ahasan MN, Chowdhary Md AM, Quadir DA (2010) Variability and trends of summer monsoon rainfall over Bangladesh. J Hydrol Meteorol 7(1):1–17Google Scholar
  2. Assimakopoulos V, Nikolopoulos K (2000) The theta model: a decomposition approach to forecasting. Int J Forecast 16:521–530CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. Bangladesh Meteorological Department (2012) http://www.bmd.gov.bd/
  4. Basak JK, Titumir RAM, Dey NC (2013) Climate change in Bangladesh: a historical analysis of temperature and rainfall data. J Environ 2(2):41–46Google Scholar
  5. Box G, Jenkins G (1970) Time series analysis: forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San FranciscoGoogle Scholar
  6. Chowdhury MHK, Debsarma SK (1992) Climate change in Bangladesh—a statistical review. In: Report of IOC-UNEP workshop on impacts of sea level rise due to global warming, NOAMI, Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, Dhaka, 16–19 Nov 1992Google Scholar
  7. Corte-Real J, Qian B, Xu H (1998) Regional climate change in Portugal: precipitation variability associated with large-scale atmospheric circulation. Int J Climatol 18:619–635CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  8. Debsarma SK (2003) Intra-annual and inter-annual variation of rainfall over different regions of Bangladesh. In: Proceedings of SAARC seminar on climate variability in the south Asian region and its impacts, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhaka, 20–24 Dec 2002Google Scholar
  9. Gaoliao J, Zhiwei Z, Hailin Z (2012) Trend analysis of air temperature between 1979–2000 in Hubei Province. Paper presented at the World Automation Congress (WAC), Puerto Vallarta, 24–28 June 2012Google Scholar
  10. Gilbert RO (1987) Statistical methods for environmental pollution monitoring. Van Nostrand Reinhold, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  11. Hall M, Frank E, Holmes G, Pfahringer B, Reutemann P, Witten IH (2009) The WEKA data mining software: an update. SIGKDD Explor 11(1):10–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Helsel DR, Hirsch RM (1992) Statistical methods in water resources. Elsevier, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  13. Hirsch RM, Slack JR, Smith RA (1982) Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data. Water Resour Res 18(1):107–121CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Huang F, Wang X (2011) Spatial and temporal variation of monthly rainfall nonuniformity of the upper Yangtze basin. Paper presented at international symposium on water resource and environmental protection, Xi’an, Shaanxi Province, 20–22 May 2011Google Scholar
  15. Islam AS (2009) Analyzing changes of temperature over Bangladesh due to global warming using historic data. In: Proceedings of the young scientists of Asia conclave: pressing problems of humankind: energy & climate, Bangalore, 15–17 Jan 2009Google Scholar
  16. Jain SK, Kumar V, Saharia M (2013) Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in North East India. Int J Climatol 33(4):968–978CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. Karmakar S, Shrestha ML (2000) Recent climate changes in Bangladesh. In: SAARC Meteorological Research Centre (SMRC), SMRC-No. 4, SMRC Publication, DhakaGoogle Scholar
  18. Kendall M (1975) Rank correlation methods. Charles Griffin & Company, London, EnglandGoogle Scholar
  19. Kumar V, Jain SK (2010) Trends in seasonal and annual rainfall and rainy days in Kashmir valley in the last century. Quatern Int 212:64–69CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  20. MacQueen JB (1967) Some methods for classification and analysis of multivariate observations. In: Proceedings of fifth Berkeley symposium on mathematical statistics and probability, University of California Press, Berkeley, pp 81–297Google Scholar
  21. Mann HB (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13:245–259CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  22. Mia NM (2003) Variations of temperature in Bangladesh. In: Proceedings of SAARC seminar on climate variability in the south Asian region and its impacts, SAARC Meteorological Research Centre, Dhaka, 20–24 Dec 2002Google Scholar
  23. Nahrin Z, Munim AA, Begum QN, Quadir DA (1997) Studies of periodicities of rainfall over Bangladesh. J Remote Sens Environ 1:43–54Google Scholar
  24. Pelczer IJ, Cisneros-Iturbe HL (2008) Identification of rainfall patterns over the Valley of Mexico. Paper presented at the 11th international conference on urban drainage, Edinburgh, 31 Aug–5 Sept 2008Google Scholar
  25. Pesaran MH, Pick A (2009) Forecasting random walks under drift instability. Cambridge working papers in economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, CambridgeGoogle Scholar
  26. R Core Team (2013) R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna. ISBN 3-900051-07-0, http://www.R-project.org/
  27. Ramos MC (2001) Divisive and hierarchical clustering techniques to analyse variability of rainfall distribution patterns in a Mediterranean region. Atmos Res 57(2):123–138CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  28. Rana M, Shafee S, Karmakar S (2007) Estimation of rainfall in Bangladesh by using southern oscillation index. Pak J Meteorol 4(7):7–23Google Scholar
  29. Sen PK (1968) Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. J Am Stat Assoc 63:1379–1389CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Singh P, Kumar V, Thomas T, Arora M (2008a) Basinwise assessment of temperature variability and trends in the northwest and central India. Hydrol Sci J 53:421–433CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Singh P, Kumar V, Thomas T, Arora M (2008b) Changes in rainfall and relative humidity in different river basins in the northwest and central India. Hydrol Process 22:2982–2992CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. Tripathi S, Govindaraju RS (2009) Change detection in rainfall and temperature patterns over India. In: Proceedings of the third international workshop on knowledge discovery from sensor data, ACM, New York, pp 133–141Google Scholar
  33. Warrick RA, Bhuiya AH, Mirza MQ (1994) The greenhouse effect and climate change: briefing document no. 1. Dhaka, Bangladesh Unnayan Parishad, pp 17–20Google Scholar
  34. Wilcoxon F (1945) Individual comparisons by ranking methods. Biometrics Bull 1(6):80–83CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  35. Xi-ting L, Chun-qing G, Xiao Y (2011) Evolvement analysis about rainfall-runoff in the upper stream of Li River under the changeable environment. Paper presented at the international conference on remote sensing, environment and transportation engineering, Nanjing, 24–26 June 2011Google Scholar
  36. Yue S, Hashino M (2003) Temperature trends in Japan: 1900–1990. Theor Appl Climatol 75:15–27Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • Abdus Salam Azad
    • 1
  • Md. Kamrul Hasan
    • 1
  • M. Arif Imtiazur Rahman
    • 1
  • Md. Mustafizur Rahman
    • 1
  • Nashid Shahriar
    • 1
  1. 1.Department of Computer Science and EngineeringBangladesh University of Engineering and TechnologyDhakaBangladesh

Personalised recommendations