Changes in extreme hydrological events

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Abstract

There has been a paucity of information on trends in hydrological extremes. Based on daily precipitation and temperature and streamflow records in the arid region, northwest of China, the temporal and spatial characteristics of hydrological extremes were analyzed during 1960–2010. The results showed that: (1) The temperature extremes show patterns consistent with warming, with a large proportion of stations showing statistically significant trends. Warming trends in indices derived from daily minimum temperature are of greater magnitudes than those from maximum temperature. The decreases in frequency for cold extremes mainly occur in summer and autumn, while warm extremes show significant increases in frequency in autumn and winter; (2) Most precipitation indices exhibited increasing trends across the region, and the precipitation increase in the arid region was due to the increase in both precipitation frequency and intensity; (3) There were increasing trends for frequency of extreme hydrological events from 1901 to 2010, particularly post 1970s. Extreme hydrological events occurred mainly during summer. Based on the results obtained in this study, the frequency, magnitude, and intensity of extreme hydrological events are expected to increase over time; (4) Frequency distribution exhibited a general symmetry along the Tianshan Mountains, distributed evenly in Junggar Basin and Tarim Basin. More extremes were observed in the north-west than that in the southeast. The maximum incidence was in west Tianshan Mountains and generally decreased south-eastward.

Keywords

Temperature extremes Precipitation extremes Extreme hydrological events Analysis of frequency Magnitude Intensity 
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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesUrumqiChina
  2. 2.Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and GeographyChinese Academy of SciencesXinjiangPeople’s Republic of China
  3. 3.College of Forestry and HorticultureXinjiang Agricultural UniversityUrumqiChina

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