Modelling plant disease epidemics

  • A. van Maanen
  • X.-M. Xu


An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.

Key words

epidemiology model differential equations spatial pattern disease forecasting aggregation 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2003

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. van Maanen
    • 1
  • X.-M. Xu
    • 2
  1. 1.Department of Environmental Resource Management, Faculty of AgricultureUniversity College DublinBelfield, Dublin 4Ireland
  2. 2.Entomology and Plant Pathology DepartmentHorticulture Research InternationalEast Malling, West Malling, KentUK

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