Conclusions and future prospects

Abstract

The diversity of current work and dynamism in the field of quantitative modelling of disequilibrium and shortage in centrally planned economies are reflected in the contributions made in this volume, which clarify theoretical concepts, resolve disputes between modelling schools, amplify existing disequilibrium and shortage models, improve estimation techniques, and uncover sources of data. Summaries are presented of the main findings related to shortage models in section 18.1 and disequilibrium models in section 18.2. This is followed by a reassessment of the contrasts and similarities between the disequilibrium and shortage models in light of the new research. Finally, section 18.4 identifies a number of topics that have been inadequately examined in past disequilibrium and shortage model studies but merit further investigation because of their importance. These include the issue of aggregation, cross-section disequilibrium analysis, the role of plans and expectations in models, the second economy in a CPE, data development, and extension of the coverage of disequilibrium and shortage models to include neglected countries and sectors.