Human Reliability Models

  • A. Amendola
Part of the ISPRA Courses book series (ISPA, volume 6)

Abstract

The lecture reviews methods for human reliability assessment. These include merely qualitative methods for the analysis of procedures and man-machine interfaces; probabilistic models based either on decomposition approaches or on statistical distributions of operator time responses or on expert judgement; and models simulating the cognitive behaviour of the operator in his decision making and actions. The cognitive models are still in a development stage. On the other hand, the results of a comparative exercise on human reliability assessment demonstrates that consistent results are very difficult to achieve by adopting current probabilistic models.

Keywords

Human Error Fault Tree Reliability Engineer Human Reliability Maintenance Error 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    Advanced Seminar on Common Cause Failures Analysis in Probabilistic Safety Assessment (1989) Proc. of the Ispra Course held in November 1987, A. Amendola (ed.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (NL).Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Watson, I.A. (1988) ‘Human factors in reliability and risk assessment’, in Reliability Engineering, Proc. of the Ispra Course held in Madrid, September 22–26, 1986, A. Amendola and A. Saiz de Bustamante (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (NL).Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Rasmussen, J. (1989) Int. Workshops to develop a multi- disciplinary research program based on a holistic system approach to safety and management of risk in large-scale technological operations, Karlstad, November 6–9.Google Scholar
  4. 4.
    Poucet, A. (1988) ‘Survey of methods used to assess human reliability in the Human Factors Reliability Benchmark exercise’, in Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 22, 257–268.Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Poucet, A. (1989) ‘Final report of the Human Factors Reliability Benchmark Exercise’, CEC-JRC, Ispra, EUR 12222 EN.Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Hopkins et al. (1982) NUREG/CR-2833.Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    See the lectures by Bagnara, S. and Embrey, D.E. (1986)on Human Reliability in Theory of Reliability, Proc. of the Int. School of Physics, A. Serra and R.E. Barlow (ads.), North Holland.Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Dougherty, E.M. Jr. and Fragola, J.R. (1988) ‘Human reliability analysis’, J. Wiley & Sons, N.Y.Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Mancini, G. (1986) ‘Modelling humans and machines’, in NATO ASI Series, Vol. F21, Intelligent Decision Support in Process Environments, E. Hollnager, G. Mancini and D. Woods (eds.), Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg.Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    De Keyser, V. (1987) ‘Human error, experience and the structure of knowledge in the reliability of process systems’, in Reliability Modelling and Applications, Proc. of the Ispra Course held at JRC, November 25–29, A.G. Colombo and A.E. Keller (ads.), D. Reidel Publishing Company, Dordrecht (NL).Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    Amandola, A., Mancini, G., Poucet, A. and Reina, G. (1982) ‘Dynamic and static models for nuclear reactor operators–needs and applications examples’, IFAC Conf. on Analysis, Design and Evaluation of Man-Machine Systems, Baden-Baden, September 27–29.Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Amandola, A., Reina, G. and Ciceri, F. (1985) ‘Dynamic simulation of man-machine interaction in incident control’, IFAC/IFIP/IFORS/IEA Conf. on Analysis, Design and Evaluation of Man-Machine Systems, Varese (I), September 10–12.Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Howard, Darlene V. (1983) ‘Cognitive psychology’, Macmillen Publishing Co., Inc., New York, Collier Macmillen Publishers, London.Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Mancini, G., Rasmussen, J. at al. (1981) ‘Classification systems for reporting events involving human malfunctions’, EUR 7444 EN.Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Rasmussen, J. (1981) ‘Models of mental strategies in process plant diagnosis’, in Human Detection of System Failures, J. Rasmussen and W.B. Rouse (ads.), Plenum Press, New York.Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Norman, D.A. (1981) ‘Categorization of action slips’, Psychology Review, 88, 1–15.MathSciNetCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  17. 17.
    Reason, J.T. and Mycielska, K. (1982) ‘Absent-minded. The psychology of mental lapses and everyday errors’, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New-Jersey.Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    Reason, J.T. (1984) ‘Of the nature of mistakes’, Int. Workshop on New Technology and Effects on Human Errors, Bad Homburg, February 13–15.Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Hollnagel, E., Mancini, G. and Woods, D. (eds.) (1986) ‘Intelligent decision support in process environments’, NATO ASI Series, Vol. F21, Springer-Verlag, Berlin-Heidelberg.Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    Amandola, A. (1985) ‘Systems Reliability Benchmark exercise, final report’, EUR-10696.Google Scholar
  21. 21.
    Hannaman, G.W. at al. (1984) ‘Systematic human action reliability procedure (SHARP)’, EPRI NP-3583, Interim report.Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    White, R.F. (1986) ‘A suggested method for the treatment of human error in the assessment of major hazards’, Reliability Engineering, 15, 171–199.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  23. 23.
    MORT - Management and Oversight Risk Tree, Developed by USA DOE (Dept. of Energy), International Risk Management Institute, Vol.VI, N°2, October 1983.Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Wreathall, J.W. (1982) ‘Operator action trees, an approach to quantifying operator error probability during accident sequences’, NUS report 4159.Google Scholar
  25. 25.
    Swain, A.D. and Guttmann, H.E. (1983) ‘Handbook of human reliability analysis with emphasis on nuclear power plant applications’, NUREG/CR-1278.Google Scholar
  26. 26.
    Hall, R.E., Fragola, J.R. and Wreathall, J.W. (1982) ‘Post event human decision errors: operator action tree/time reliability correlation’, NUREG/CR-3010, BNL-NUREG 51601.Google Scholar
  27. 27.
    Hannaman, G.W., Joksimovich, V., Worledge, D.H. and Spurgin, A.J. (1986) ‘The role of human reliability analysis for enhancing crew performance’, Int. ANS/ENS Top. Meeting on Advances in Human Factors in Nuclear Power Systems, Knoxville (Te).Google Scholar
  28. 28.
    Pickard, Cowe and Garwick, Inc. (1983) ‘Seabrook station probabilistic safety assessment’.Google Scholar
  29. 29.
    Embrey, D.E. et al. (1984) ‘SLIM-MAUD: an approach to assessing human error probabilities using structured expert judgement’, NUREG/CR-3518, Washington (D.C.).Google Scholar
  30. 30.
    Embrey, D.E. (1985) ‘SLIM-MAUD: a computer-based technique for human reliability assessment’, Int. ANS/ENS Top. Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Methods and Applications, San Francisco (CA).Google Scholar
  31. 31.
    Vestrucci, P. (1988) ‘The logistic model for assessing human error probabilities using the SLIM method’, Rel. Eng. and Syst. Safety, 21, 189–196.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  32. 32.
    Apostolakis, G., Bier, V.M. and Moslek, A. (1987) ‘Expert opinions and uncertainty modelling in human risk assessment: a critical evaluation’, Post-SMiRT 9 seminar on Accident Sequence Modelling: Human Actions, System Response, Intelligent Decision Support, Munich (FRG), August 24–25, Rel. Eng. and System Safety, Vol.22, N°1–4, 201.Google Scholar
  33. 33.
    Poucet, A. and Amendola, A. (1988) ‘State of the art in PSA reliability modelling as resulting from the international Benchmark exercises project’, NUCSAFE 88 Conf., Avignon, October 2–7.Google Scholar
  34. 34.
    Clarotti, C.A. (1988) ‘Inference, a Bayesian approach’, in Reliability Engineering, A. Amendola and A. Saiz de Bustamante (eds.), Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht (NL).Google Scholar
  35. 35.
    Amendola, A., Bersini, U., Cacciabue, P.C. and Mancini, G. (1987) ‘Modelling operators in accident conditions: advances and perspectives on a cognitive model’, Int. J: Man-Machine Studies, 27, 599–612.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. 36.
    Bersini, U., Cacciabue, P.C. and Mancini, G. (1987) ‘Cognitive modelling: a basic complement of human reliability analysis’, 9th SMiRT post-conference seminar on Accident Sequence Modelling: Human Actions, System Response, Intelligent Decision Support, München, August 24–25.Google Scholar
  37. 37.
    Cacciabue, P.C. and Bersini, U. (1988) ‘Modelling human behaviour in the context of a simulation of man-machine systems’, in J. Patrick and K. Duncan (eds.), Human Decision Making and Control, North Holland, Elsevier, Amsterdam.Google Scholar
  38. 38.
    Decortis, F. and De Keyser, V. (1988) ‘Time: the Cinderella of man-machine interaction’, 3rd IFAC/IFIP/IEA/IFORS Conf. on Man-Machine Systems, Oulu ( Finland ), June 14–16.Google Scholar
  39. 39.
    Bersini, U., Cacciabue, P.C. and Mancini, G. (1988) ‘A model of operator behaviour for man-machine system simulation’, 3rd IFAC/IFIP/IEA/IFORS Conf. on Man-Machine Systems, Oulu (Finland) June 14–16.Google Scholar
  40. 40.
    See the papers by Amendola, A. and Izquierdo, J.M., Sanchez-Pe- rea, M. on the DYLAM approach in these Proceedings.Google Scholar
  41. 41.
    Reason, J. (1986) ‘Recurrent errors in process environments: some implications for the design of intelligent decision support system’, in the book quoted at ref./19/.Google Scholar
  42. 42.
    Zadeh, L.A. (1978) ‘Fuzzy sets as a basis for a theory of possibility’, Fuzzy Sets and Systems, Elsevier, Amsterdam, 1, 728.MathSciNetGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© ECSC, EEC, EAEC, Brussels and Luxembourg 1990

Authors and Affiliations

  • A. Amendola
    • 1
  1. 1.Commission of the European CommunitiesJoint Research Centre - Institute for Systems EngineeringIspra (Va)Italy

Personalised recommendations