The Implications for Future Contingency Planning of the 1979 Gasoline Shortage

  • Leslie E. Grayson
  • Robert K. Morris
Part of the Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics book series (ASTA, volume 17)

Abstract

This paper examines the origins and management of the 1979 oil crisis in search of policy implications for the next oil shortage. Deliveries of gasoline were insufficient to meet demand during the first eight months of 1979; gasoline represented half of all refinery output.1

Keywords

International Energy Agency Historical Level Vehicle Travel Motor Gasoline World Stock 
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Notes

  1. 1).
    Cabot Consulting Group, Performance of the US Petroleum Distribution System under Shortage Conditions: Implications for Contingency Planners, Contract No. DE-AC01-70PE-70051, pp.6–8. L.E. Grayson was consultant in the preparation of the report. The following companies have kindly cooperated in the study: Arco, Chevron, Sohio, Texaco, Union, and, most helpfully, Exxon.Google Scholar
  2. 2).
    Monthly Energy Review, DOE/EIA, February 1986, p.42.Google Scholar
  3. 3).
    Philip K. Verleger Jr. (1982), Oil Markets in Turmoil: An Economic-Analysis, Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass, pp.90–100.Google Scholar
  4. 4).
    Philip K. Verleger Jr. (1982), Oil Markets in Turmoil: An Economic-Analysis, Ballinger, Cambridge, Mass, pp.200–202.Google Scholar
  5. 5).
    National Petroleum Council (1984), Petroleum Inventories and Storage Capacity, June, pp.19, J-2, J-3, J-4.Google Scholar
  6. 6).
    Glen Toner (1987), “The International Energy Agency and the Development of the Stocks Decision”, Energy Policy, February, pp.40–58. L.E. Grayson was consultant to the International Energy Agency, Paris, Summer, 1984.Google Scholar
  7. 7).
    M.S. Robinson (1982), “The Crude Oil Price Spiral of 1979–1980”, Shell International, London.Google Scholar
  8. 8).
    Based on Cabot, chapter 4.Google Scholar
  9. 9).
    R. Shriver Associates, Evaluation of the Gasoline Allocation Program, Contract No. DE-AC01-79PE-70037, pp.70–71.Google Scholar
  10. 10).
    Based on DOE official interviewed on May 28, 1986, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
  11. 11).
    Cabot, pp. 33, 53, 64, 66, 70.Google Scholar
  12. 12).
    Based on Cabot, chapter 2.Google Scholar
  13. 13).
    Based on Cabot, chapter 3.Google Scholar
  14. 14).
    US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, Motor Gasoline Supply and Demand Through 1980, August 1978, pp.8–11 and US Department of Energy/Energy Information Administration, Model Documentation Report: Short Term Integrated Forecasting System, January 1986, p.8.Google Scholar
  15. 15).
    Cabot, pp.142–43.Google Scholar
  16. 16).
    Verleger, pp.206–07.Google Scholar
  17. 17).
    M.A. Adelman (1982), “Coping with Supply Insecurity”, The Energy Journal, January-March, pp.1–17.Google Scholar
  18. 18).
    George Horwich and David Leo Weimer (1984), Oil Price Shocks, Market Response, and Contingency Planning, American Enterprise Institute, Washington, pp. 128–32.Google Scholar
  19. 19).
    US Department of Energy/Office of Petroleum Reserves (1986), Strategic Petroleum Reserve Annual/ Quarterly Report, February 15, p. 17. For additional insight into the role of inventories, see Toner (1987), pp.40–58.Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Kluwer Academic Publishers 1989

Authors and Affiliations

  • Leslie E. Grayson
    • 1
  • Robert K. Morris
    • 2
  1. 1.University of VirginiaUSA
  2. 2.Rochester Telephone CompanyUSA

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