Advertisement

Exploration: What Reserves and Resources?

  • David A. Vaccari
  • Michael Mew
  • Roland W. Scholz
  • Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer
Chapter
First Online:

Abstract

The Exploration Node focuses on the search for assessment and quantification of phosphate reserves and resources in relation to the geopotential (i.e., the undiscovered reserves and resources). The Exploration Node encompasses all aspects of the predevelopment stages of phosphate deposits from initial discovery of deposits to the involved feasibility studies required to obtain funding for the development of a mine. The feasibility of producing phosphate rock (PR) can be broadly defined in terms of technical feasibility and economic feasibility. In order for potential ores to be classified as reserves, consideration must be given to issues of grade, quality, operating, and investment costs which include studies of the accessibility and availability of financing. Details about these considerations are often proprietary, making it difficult to publically assess the resource picture. Phosphorus is the eleventh most abundant element. P is essential for life and cannot be substituted by other elements in food production. The given knowledge about reserves and resources, the accessibility, and scarcity of phosphorus and phosphate rock may depend on available technologies and is finally an economic question. We discuss a number of parameters which may indicate whether scarcity of a resource may be an increasing concern. These include the resource/consumption ratio, Hubbert-curve-based peak predictions, trends in ore grade, new resource discovery rates, and resource pricing as they are important for understanding exploration efforts. We further discuss estimates of reserves and the trends in actual estimates of phosphate reserves. P reserve estimates are dynamic and will increase for some time. Nevertheless, at some time in the long-term future, there will be a peak such as there will be a point in time that mined P becomes less economical than conservation and recovery.

Keywords

Phosphorus reserves Indicators for resources scarcity Uneven distribution of reserves Supply–demand dynamics 
This is a preview of subscription content, log in to check access.

Notes

Acknowledgments

We want to thank Debbie T. Hellums, Steve van Kauwenbergh, and Michel Prud’homme for their detailed feedbacks to a previous version of this chapter.

References

  1. Al Rawashdeh R, Maxwell P (2011) The evolution and prospects of the phosphate industry. Min Econ 24(1):15–27. doi: 10.1007/s13563-011-0003-8 Google Scholar
  2. Al-Bassam K, Fernette G, Jasinski SM (2012) Phosphate deposits of Iraq. In: Phosphates 2012, El-Jadida, Morocco, 20 Mar 2012Google Scholar
  3. Beck U (2000) The cosmopolitan perspective: sociology of the second age of modernity. Br J Sociol 51(1):79–105CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  4. Brandt AR (2007) Testing Hubbert. Energy Policy 35(5):3074–3088. doi: 10.1016/j.enpol.2006.11.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Chemicals Unit of DG Enterprise (2004) Draft proposal relating to cadmium in fertilizers. European Commission, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  6. Cordell D, Drangert JO, White S (2009) The story of phosphorus: global food security and food for thought. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimensions 19(2):292–305. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2008.10.009 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Cordell D, White S, Lindström T (2011) Peak phosphorus: the crunch time for humanity? Sustain Rev 2(2):3Google Scholar
  8. Crowson P (2012) Solving the minerals equation? Demand, prices and supply. In: Life and innovation cycles in the field of raw materials supply and demand—a transdisciplinary approach, Orléans, France, 19–20 Apr 2012Google Scholar
  9. DERA (2011) Deutschland—Rohstoffsituation 2011. DERA Rohstoffinformation 13. Deutsche Rohstoffagentur, HannoverGoogle Scholar
  10. Déry P, Anderson B (2007) Peak phosphorus. Energy Bull (Retrieved September 22, 2011) Google Scholar
  11. EU (1976) Council directive of 18 December 1975 on the approximation of the laws of the member states relating to fertilizer. Off J Eur CommGoogle Scholar
  12. EU (2004) Commission regulation (EC) No 2076/2004 of 3 December 2004 adapting for the first time annex I of regulation (EC) No 2003/2003 of the European parliament and of the council relating to fertilisers (EDDHSA and triple superphosphate). The commission on the treaty establishing the European community, BrusselsGoogle Scholar
  13. Gerst MD (2008) Revisiting the cumulative grade-tonnage relationship for major copper ore types. Econ Geol 103:615–628CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. Gharbi A (1998) Les Phosphates Marocains. Chronique de la Recherche Minière 531–532:127–138Google Scholar
  15. Hubbert MK (1962) Energy resources a report to the committee on natural resources. National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  16. Hutton M, Meeûs D (2001) Analysis and conclusions from member states’ assessment of the risk to health and the environment from cadmium in fertilisers. Contract no. ETD/00/503201. European commission—enterprise DG. Environmental Resources Management, LondonGoogle Scholar
  17. IFDC (2010) World phosphate rock reserves and resources. IFDC, Muscle ShoalsGoogle Scholar
  18. IFDC/UNIDO (ed) (1998) Fertlizer Manual. Kluwer, DordrechtGoogle Scholar
  19. Jasinski SM (2006) Phosphate rock. In: US Geological Survey (ed) Mineral commodity summaries. USGS, St. Louis, pp 122–123Google Scholar
  20. Jasinski SM (2009) Phosphate rock. In: US Geological Survey (ed) Mineral commodity summaries. USGS, St. Louis, pp 120–121Google Scholar
  21. Jasinski SM (2010) Phosphate rock. In: US Geological Survey (ed) Mineral commodity summaries. USGS, St. Louis, pp 118–119Google Scholar
  22. Jasinski SM (2011) Phosphate rock. In: US Geological Survey (ed) Mineral commodity summaries. USGS, Mineral commodity summaries, pp 120–121Google Scholar
  23. Jasinski SM (2012) Phosphate rock. In: US Geological Survey (ed) Mineral commodity summaries. USGS, Mineral commodity summaries, pp 118–119Google Scholar
  24. JORC (2004) Australasian code for reporting of exploration results, mineral resources and ore reserves. The JORC code 2004. http://www.jorc.org/main.php
  25. Llewellyn TO (1993) Phosphate rock. Minerals yearbook. US Department of the Interior, Bureau of Mines, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  26. MacDonald GK, Bennett EM, Potter PA, Ramankutty N (2011) Agronomic phosphorous imbalances across the world‘s cropland. PNAS 108(7):3086–3091CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  27. Midgley JF (2012) Sandpiper project. Proposed recovery of phosphate enriched sediments from the marine mining licence area no. 170 off. Appendix 5. Namibian Marine Phosphate (PTY) LTD. J Midgley & Associates, HighettGoogle Scholar
  28. Moyle PR, Piper DZ (2004) Western phosphate field—depositional and economic deposit models. In: Hein JR (ed) Handbook of exploration and environmental geochemistry. Vol. 8. Life cycle of the phosphoria formation—from deposition to the post-mining environment. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 45–71Google Scholar
  29. Nziguheba G, Smolders E (2008) Inputs of trace elements in agricultural soils via phosphate fertilizers in European countries. Sci Total Environ 390(1):53–57. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2007.09.031 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  30. Orris GJ, Chernoff CB (2004) Review of world sedimentary phosphate deposits and occurrences. In: Hein JR (ed) Handbook of exploration and environmental geochemistry. Vol. 8. Life cycle of the phosphoria formation—from deposition to the post-mining environment. Elsevier, Amsterdam, pp 559–573CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  31. Parsons T (1951) The social system. The Free Press, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  32. Prud’homme M (2010) World phosphate rock flows, losses and uses. Paper presented at the British sulphur events phosphates, Brussels, 22–24 MarGoogle Scholar
  33. Prud’homme M (2011) Global phosphate rock production trends from 1961 to 2010. Reasons for the temporary set-back in 1988–1994. IFA, ParisGoogle Scholar
  34. Sames CW, Wellmer F-W (1982) Exploration, part I: nothing ventures, nothing gained—risks, strategies, costs, achievements. Glückauf 117(10):267–272Google Scholar
  35. Scholz RW (2011) Environmental literacy in science and society: from knowledge to decisions. Cambridge University Press, CambridgeCrossRefGoogle Scholar
  36. Scholz RW, Wellmer F-W (2013) Approaching a dynamic view on the availability of mineral resources: what we may learn from the case of phosphorus? Glob Environ Change 23:11–27CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  37. Sheldon RP (1987) Industrial minerals, with emphasis on phosphate rock. In: McLaren DJ, Skinner BJ (eds) Resources and world development. Wiley, New York, pp 347–361Google Scholar
  38. Smil V (2000) Phosphorus in the environment: natural flows and human interferences. Annu Rev Energy Env 25:53–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  39. Smit AL, Bindraban PS, Schröder JJ, Conijn JG, van der Meer HG (2009) Phosphorus in agriculture: global resources, trends and developments, vol 282. Plant Research International B. V, WageningenGoogle Scholar
  40. Sorrell S, Speirs J (2010) Hubbert’s legacy: a review of curve-fitting methods to estimate ultimately recoverable resources. Nat Resour Res 19(3):209–229CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  41. Stephenson PR (2001) The JORC code. Trans Inst Min Metall Sect B-Appl Earth Sci 110:B121–B125CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  42. Teitenberg T (2003) Environmental and natural resource economics. Pearson Education Inc, New JerseyGoogle Scholar
  43. Tilton JE (1977) The future of nonfuel minerals. The Brookings Institution, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  44. UN (1962) Permanent sovereignty over natural resources. UN Codification Division Office of Legal Affairs, New YorkGoogle Scholar
  45. US Census Bureau (2012) Las Vegas (city), Nevada. http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/32/3240000.html
  46. UNCTAD (2012) Intergovernmental forum on mining, minerals, metals and sustainable development. UN. http://unctad.org/en/Pages/MeetingDetails.aspx?meetingid=151
  47. US Geological Survey (2002) Rare earth elements—critical resources for high technology, Fact sheet 087–02Google Scholar
  48. USGS (2004) Mineral commodity summaries 2004. US Geological Survey, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  49. USGS (2012) Mineral commodity summary 2012. US Geological Survey, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  50. Vaccari DA, Strigul N (2011) Extrapolating phosphorus production to estimate resource reserves. Chemosphere 84(6):792–797. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2011.01.052 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  51. van Kauwenbergh SJ (1997) Cadmium and other minor elements in world resource of phosphate rock, No 400. The Fertilizer Society, LondonGoogle Scholar
  52. van Kauwenbergh SJ (2006) Fertilizer raw material resources of Africa. IFDC, Muscle ShoalsGoogle Scholar
  53. van Kauwenbergh SJ (2010a) World phosphate rock reserves and resources. IFDC, Muscle ShoalsGoogle Scholar
  54. van Kauwenbergh SJ (2010b) World phosphate rock reserves and resources. Paper Presentation at fertilizer outlook and technology conference hosted by the Fertilizer Institute and the Fertilizer Industry Roundtable, Savannah, 16–18 Nov 2010Google Scholar
  55. van Kauwenbergh SJ (2012) Heavy metals and radioactive elements in phosphate rock processing. In: 4th global traps meeting, El-Jadida, Morocco, 17–18 Mar 2012Google Scholar
  56. van Vuuren DP, Bouwman AF, Beusen AHW (2010) Phosphorus demand for the 1970–2100 period: a scenario analysis of resource depletion. Glob Environ Change-Hum Policy Dimensions 20(3):428–439. doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.04.004 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  57. VFRC (2012) Global research to nourish the world. A blueprint for food security. Virtual Fertilizer Research Center, Washington, DCGoogle Scholar
  58. Vielleville DE, Vasani BS (2008) Sovereignty over natural resources versus rights under investment contracts: which one prevails? OGEL 5(2):1–22Google Scholar
  59. Wagner M (1999) Ökonomische Bewertung von Explorationserfolgen über Erfahrungskurven. Geologisches Jahrbuch, vol SH 12Google Scholar
  60. Ward J (2008) Peak phosphorus: quoted reserves vs. production history. Energy Bull (Retrieved, September 21, 2011). http://energybulletin.net/node/33164. http://www.resilience.org/stories/2008-08-26/peak-phosphorus-quoted-reserves-vs-production-history
  61. Watson I, Stauffacher M, van Straaten P, Katz T, Botha L (2014) Mining and concentration: what mining to what costs and benefits? In: Scholz RW, Roy AH, Brand FS, Hellums DT, Ulrich AE (eds) Sustainable phosphorus management: a global transdisciplinary roadmap. Springer, Berlin, pp 153–182Google Scholar
  62. Weber O, Delince J, Duan Y, Maene L, McDaniels T, Mew M, Schneidewid U, Steiner G (2014) Trade and finance as cross-cutting issues in the global phosphate and fertilizer market. In: Scholz RW, Roy AH, Brand FS, Hellums DT, Ulrich AE (eds) Sustainable phosphorus management: a global transdisciplinary roadmap. Springer, Berlin, pp 275–299Google Scholar
  63. Wedepohl KH (1995) The composition of the continental-crust. Geochim Cosmochim Acta 59(7):1217–1232CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  64. Wellmer F-W (1986) Risk elements characteristic of mining investments. In: 13th CMMI congress, 11–16 May 1986, Singapore. pp 17–24Google Scholar
  65. Wellmer F-W, Becker-Platen JD (2002) Sustainable development and the exploitation of mineral and energy resources: a review. Int J Earth Sci 91(5):723–745CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  66. Wellmer F-W, Dahlheimer M, Wagner M (2008) Economic evaluations in exploration. Springer, HeidelbergGoogle Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  • David A. Vaccari
    • 1
  • Michael Mew
    • 2
  • Roland W. Scholz
    • 3
    • 4
  • Friedrich-Wilhelm Wellmer
    • 5
    • 6
  1. 1.Stevens Institute of TechnologyHobokenUSA
  2. 2.CRU International-ConsultantCondomFrance
  3. 3.Fraunhofer Project Group Materials Recycling and Resource Strategies IWKSAlzenauGermany
  4. 4.ETH Zürich, Natural and Social Science Interface (NSSI)ZürichSwitzerland
  5. 5.Formerly Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR)HannoverGermany
  6. 6.Neue SachlichkeitHannoverGermany

Personalised recommendations

Cite chapter

Buy options