Fostering Children’s Probabilistic Reasoning and First Elements of Risk Evaluation

  • Laura MartignonEmail author
Part of the Advances in Mathematics Education book series (AME)


The ABC of probabilistic literacy for good decision-making should be conveyed to children at an early stage, or more precisely, before they reach their 11th year of age. This conviction is based on the view of experts who maintain that the mathematical competencies of adults who are not especially trained in mathematical subjects are those they developed when they were 9, 10 and 11 years old. This paper will show how children can be provided with elementary, yet useful tools for decision making under uncertainty. Children, as has been demonstrated empirically, can acquire a mosaic of simple, play-based activities, by means of tinker-cubes. The results reported here were guided and inspired by empirical studies on human decision making obtained by the Centre of Adaptive Behaviour and Cognition, directed by Gerd Gigerenzer.


Fourth Grader Bayesian Reasoning Base Rate Information Sequential Partitioning Base Rate Neglect 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.



The author thanks Lynn Michell for useful suggestions both on aspects of this chapter and on the formulations in the text. This work has been sponsored by the SPP 15-16 of the DFG, in the Project Models of Information Search.


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Institute of Mathematics and Computer ScienceLudwigsburg University of EducationLudwigsburgGermany

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