Modeling Random Binomial Rabbit Hops

Chapter
Part of the International Perspectives on the Teaching and Learning of Mathematical Modelling book series (IPTL)

Abstract

Six fourth-grade students engaged in data modeling to make sense of the pattern of variability in binomial distributions. The students modeled five random rabbit-hops by tossing a fair coin to determine the most likely locations of the rabbits along a number line ranging from –5 to +5. To make sense of their empirical distributions, the students generated inscriptions of “paths” showing the possible ways to get to each final location and used these both to prove why certain locations were impossible and why central locations were more likely than extreme ones. Using the NetLogo Model (Wilensky, 1998) also helped some students to notice a particular distribution shape (i.e., a symmetric mound shape) in large number of trials. One student, for example, used the results of the NetLogo simulation to explain the distribution shape and to quantify the probability distribution in terms of the “number of ways” the events could occur.

Notes

Acknowledgment

Writing this paper was enabled through the support by the grant ESI-0454754 from the National Science Foundation (ModelChance Project).

References

  1. Cobb, P. (1999). Individual and collective mathematical development: The case of statistical data analysis. Mathematical Thinking and Learning, 1, 5–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  2. Franklin, C., Kader, G., Mewborn, D., Moreno, J., Peck, R., Perry, M., and Scheaffer, R. (2007). Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) Report: A Pre-K-12 Curriculum Framework. Alexandra, VA: American Statistical Association.Google Scholar
  3. Horvath, J., and Lehrer, R. (1998). A model-based perspective on the development of children’s understanding of chance and uncertainty. In S. P. LaJoie (Ed.), Reflections on statistics: Agendas for Learning, Teaching, and Assessment in K-12 (pp. 121–148). Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  4. Kahneman, D., and Tversky, A. (1972). Subjective probability: A judgment of representativeness. Cognitive Psychology, 3, 430–454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. Kazak, S. (2006). Investigating Elementary School Students’ Reasoning About Distributions in Various Chance Events. Unpublished dissertation, Washington University in St. Louis.Google Scholar
  6. Konold, C., Pollatsek, A., Well, A., Lohmeier, J., and Lipson, A. (1993). Inconsistencies in students’ reasoning about probability. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 24, 392–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. Latour, B. (1990). Drawing things together. In M. Lynch, and S. Woolgar (Eds.), Representation in Scientific Practice (pp. 19–68). Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
  8. Lehrer, R., and Schauble, L. (2000). Modeling in mathematics and science. In R. Glaser (Ed.), Advances in Instructional Psychology: Vol. 5. Educational Design and Cognitive Science (pp. 101–159). Mahweh NJ: Erlbaum.Google Scholar
  9. NCTM. (2000). Principles and Standards for School Mathematics. Reston, VA: NCTM.Google Scholar
  10. Piaget, J., and Inhelder, B. (1975). The Origin of the Idea of Chance in Children. New York: W. W. Norton, and Company Inc.Google Scholar
  11. Pratt, D. (2000). Making sense of the total of two dice. Journal for Research in Mathematics Education, 31, 602–625.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. Shaughnessy, J. M. (2003). Research on students’ understandings of probability. In J. Kilpatrick, W. G. Martin, and D. Schifter, (Eds.), A Research Companion to the Principles and Standards for School Mathematics (pp. 216–226). Reston, VA: NCTM.Google Scholar
  13. Vahey, P. J. (1997). Toward an understanding of productive student conceptions of probability: The Probability inquiry environment. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Educational Research Association. Chicago, IL, March 24–28, 1997 (ERIC Document Reproduction Service No. ED 407 260).Google Scholar
  14. Wilensky, U. (1997). What is normal anyway? Therapy for epistemological anxiety. Educational Studies in Mathematics, 33, 171–202.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. Wilensky, U. (1998). NetLogo Binomial Rabbits model. Center for connected learning and computer-based modeling http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/BinomialRabbits., Northwestern University, Evanston, IL.

Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.University of Massachusetts AmherstAmherstUSA

Personalised recommendations