Climate Change and Its Impact on Soil Productivity in Moldova

Abstract

Analysis of long-term data (1945–2007) for Moldova reveals trends in agro-climate parameters and related harvest fluctuations of field crops, vines and fruits. Over the period 1945–1970, mean annual temperatures decreased by 0.72 °C; since then they have increased by 1.41 °C. Seasonal temperatures followed similar trends. Mean annual and seasonal temperatures in Moldova are already higher than the optimum for all the main crops; summer temperatures have the greatest effect on yields, which were reduced by higher-than-average temperatures. Mean annual rainfall during the same period recorded variable trends: from 1945 to 1965 it increased by 142 mm; from 1965 to 1977, decreased by 50 mm; and from 1976 to 2010, increased again by 52 mm, overall an upward trend, especially in summer and autumn. Analysis of long-term meteorological and statistical data shows a clear relationship between mean rainfall and crop yields: below-average rainfall (−17 %) reduced wheat yields by 11 % and maize by 15 %; very dry years (−31 %) reduced wheat yields by 16 % and maize by 23 %. Less-than-average rainfall during the growing period had the greatest impact. As we might expect, the volume of summer rain, ranging from 134 to 302 mm, had a big effect of on crop yields: decrease in summer rainfall by 33 % from the mean of 203 mm depressed yields of winter wheat by almost 10 %, maize 16.8 %, sugar beet 14.5 %, grapes 5.2 % and fruit crops by 9.2 %.