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Monitoring, Modelling and Forecasting of the Pollen Season

Chapter

Abstract

The section about monitoring covers the development of phenological networks, remote sensing of the season cycle of the vegetation, the emergence of the science of aerobiology and, more specifically, aeropalynology, pollen sampling instruments, pollen counting techniques, applications of aeropalynology in agriculture and the European Pollen Information System. Three data sources are directly related with aeropalynology: phenological observations, pollen counts and remote sensing of the vegetation activity. The main future challenge is the assimilation of these data streams into numerical pollen forecast systems. Over the last decades consistent monitoring efforts of various national networks have created a wealth of pollen concentration time series. These constitute a nearly untouched treasure, which is still to be exploited to investigate questions concerning pollen emission, transport and deposition. New monitoring methods allow measuring the allergen content in pollen. Results from research on the allergen content in pollen are expected to increase the quality of the operational pollen forecasts.

In the modelling section the concepts of a variety of process-based phenological models are sketched. Process-based models appear to exhaust the noisy information contained in commonly available observational phenological and pollen data sets. Any additional parameterisations do not to improve model quality substantially. Observation-based models, like regression models, time series models and computational intelligence methods are also briefly described. Numerical pollen forecast systems are especially challenging. The question, which of the models, regression or process-based models is superior, cannot yet be answered.

Keywords

Aerobiology Aeropalynology Phenology Pollen modelling Phenological modelling 

List of Acronyms

AFEDA

French Association for Ragweed Study

ANN

Artificial Neural Networks

ARIMA

Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average

AVHRR

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer

CART

Classification and Regression Trees

COST725

COST Action 725: Establishing a European Phenological Data Platform for Climatological Applications

CAgM

Commission for Agrometeorology

DEM

Digital Elevation Model

DWD

Deutscher Wetterdienst

EAN

European Aeroallergen Network

ELISA

Enzyme-linked Immunosorbent Assay

EUMETNET

The Network of European Meteorological Services

GIMMS

Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies

IC

Computational Intelligence

IAA

International Association for Aerobiology

IBP

International Biological Programme

INERIS

Industrial Environment and Risks National Institute

IPG

International Phenological Garden

Landsat TM

Landsat Thematic Mapper, Satellite

LUT

Look Up Table

MODIS

Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

NDVI

Normalised Difference Vegetation Index

NHMS

National Hydrometeorological Services

NOAA

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

PCR

Polymerase Chain Reaction

PEP725

Pan European Phenological Database

PM

Particulate Matter

RMSE

Root Mean Square Error

SPOT

Satellite Pour l’Observation de la Terre

SOM

Self-Organising Maps

SVMs

Support Vector Machines

TSM

Temperature Sum Model

UM

Use and Management of Biological Resources

WCDMP

World Climate Data and Monitoring Programme

WCP

World Climate Programme

WIBS

Wide-Issue Bioaerosol Spectrometer

WMO

World Meteorological Organisation

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© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und GeodynamikWienAustria
  2. 2.CREAFUniversidad Autónoma de BarcelonaBellaterraSpain
  3. 3.ZAUM - Center of Allergy & Environmenta joint institute of the Technische Universität München and Helmholtz Zentrum MünchenMunichGermany
  4. 4.Science Faculty, Biology DepartmentUludag University, GörükleBursaTurkey
  5. 5.Department of Ecology, School of BiologyAristotle UniversityThessalonikiGreece
  6. 6.Association Française d’Etude des Ambroisies: A F E D ASaint-PriestFrance
  7. 7.Departamento de Biologia Vegetal, Campus de RabanalesUniversidad de CordobaCordobaSpain
  8. 8.Bio- and Environmental Meteorology, Climate DivisionMeteoSchweizZürichSwitzerland
  9. 9.Laboratory of Aeropalynology, Faculty of BiologyAdam Mickiewicz UniversityPoznanPoland
  10. 10.Department of Biological Applications and TechnologyUniversity of IoanninaIoanninaGreece
  11. 11.NORUT ITEKTromsøNorway
  12. 12.HNO Klinik der Medizinischen Universität WienWienAustria
  13. 13.Informatics Applications and Systems Group, Faculty of EngineeringAristotle UniversityThessalonikiGreece
  14. 14.National Pollen and Aerobiology Research Unit, Institute of HealthUniversity of WorcesterWorcesterUK
  15. 15.Laboratory for Palynology, Faculty of SciencesUniversity of Novi SadNovi SadSerbia
  16. 16.Réseau National de Surveillance AérobilogiqueSaint Genis L’ArgentièreFrance
  17. 17.Department of PulmonologyLeiden University Medical CentreLeidenThe Netherlands

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