Scenario analysis of cement production in China: the role of policy and technology in the pathway to sustainable society

  • Michinori Uwasu
  • Keishiro Hara
  • Helmut Yabar
  • Haiyan Zhang


China’s annual cement production is by far the largest in the world. Although it is a necessity for economic development, its production requires huge amount of energy inputs, adversely affecting sustainable development. In this paper, we identify the determination of cement demand in China and demonstrate scenario analysis toward 2015. We demonstrate that while technological development in the cement industry in China is important in terms of reducing energy input, the most critical factor is to achieve balanced economic growth. In particular, our results suggest the importance of the achievement of the economic growth target in the 12th Five-Years-Initiative of China, addressing the effective urban planning and financial mechanism for technological development and diffusion.


China Cement Economic growth Urbanization Scenario Analysis Technology Energy Consumption 


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Copyright information

© Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michinori Uwasu
    • 1
  • Keishiro Hara
    • 1
  • Helmut Yabar
    • 2
  • Haiyan Zhang
    • 3
  1. 1.Center for Environmental Innovation for SustainabilityOsaka UniversitySuitaJapan
  2. 2.Graduate School of Life and Environmental Sciences, Sustainable Environmental StudiesUniversity of TsukubaIbarakiJapan
  3. 3.School of EngineeringOsaka UniversitySuitaJapan

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