Relationship Between Earthquake Losses and Social and Economic Situation

Chapter
First Online:
Part of the Advances in Natural and Technological Hazards Research book series (NTHR, volume 30)

Abstract

An analysis of the average amount of losses from natural disasters both in the death toll and in economic loss leads to the conclusion about a fast nonlinear growth of losses with time. This tendency used to be ascribed to a population growth, the development of potentially hazardous industries, and a general deterioration of the environment. Extrapolation of this tendency suggests that all the economic gain will be consumed in the greater losses from natural disasters by the end of the twenty-first century (or even by the mid-twenty-first century). However, this pessimistic prediction is based on the use of means and variances, which is incorrect for the case of heavy-tailed distributions typical of death toll and economic loss from natural disasters. The application of statistically correct approaches affects the prediction essentially.

Keywords

Natural Disaster Loss Distribution Death Toll Earthquake Disaster Nonlinear Growth 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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Copyright information

© Springer Netherlands 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical GeophysicsRussian Academy of SciencesMoscowRussia

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