Agent-Based Extensions to a Spatial Microsimulation Model of Demographic Change
New technologies and techniques now enable us to construct complex social models with more sophistication. In this paper we introduce an individual-based model, which combines the strengths of both microsimulation models and agent-based model approaches to project the UK population 30 years into the future. The hybrid modelling approach has been adopted to add flexibility and practicality in order to capture individual characteristics, especially in terms of individual movements, interactions and behaviours in the absence of suitable microdata. Such characteristics during the life courses of individuals are modelled through an event-driven model that simulates discrete processes that represent important demographic transitions.
KeywordsTotal Fertility Rate Demographic Process Heterogeneous Agent Microsimulation Model Demographic Behaviour
This research has been funded by the Economic and Social Research Council through the National Centre for e-Social Science (MoSeS RES-149-25-0034 and GENeSIS RES-149-25-1078).
Census output is Crown copyright and is reproduced with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and the Queen’s Printer for Scotland. 2001 Census, Output Area Boundaries. Crown copyright 2003.
The British Household Panel Study data were originally collected by the Economic and Social Research Council Research Centre on Micro-social Change at the University of Essex, now incorporated within the Institute for Social and Economic Research. Neither the original collectors of the data nor the UK Data Archive bear any responsibility for the analyses or interpretations presented here.
2001 Census: Special Licence Household Sample of Anonymised Records (SL-HSAR) were deposited by the University of Manchester, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research. Although all efforts are made to ensure the quality of the materials, neither the original data creators, depositors or copyright holders, the funders of the Data Collections, nor the UK Data Archive bear any responsibility for the accuracy or comprehensiveness of these materials.
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