Evaluation of Countermeasures for Low Birthrate and Aging of the Population in a Suburban New Town

  • Yoshiki Ito
  • Tomomi Nonaka
  • Masaru NakanoEmail author
Conference paper


Tama City is engaged in two measures to counter the declining birthrate and aging of its population: an incentive scheme that encourages companies to invite young people and an action plan to support the development of the next generations. But, the exact process to estimate policy effects and identify measures that lead to good results is unknown. This paper articulates the causes of Tama City’s declining birthrate and aging population, and reveals measures derived from a cohort-component method that are suitable for measuring the future impact of policies intended to reduce these trends.


Urban service Public service Sustainable development Policy analysis Social system design 



This work was supported in part by a Grant-in-Aid from the Association for Sustainable Building Systems and JSPS KAKENHI Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B) Number 26730159. We thank the members of the theme “Development of simulation models for long life housing and sustainable urban infrastructure” under the grant.


  1. 1.
    Takayama N, Saito O (2006) Shoshika no keizaibunseki [Economic analysis of declining birth rate] –translated by authors (in Japanese). Toyokeizai Inc., Tokyo Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Carter K, Fortune C (2007) Sustainable development policy perceptions and practice in the UK Social Housing Sector. Construct Manag Econ 25(4):399–408CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  3. 3.
    Howes R, Robinson H (2005) Infrastructure for the built environment: global procurement strategies. Elsevier, OxfordGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Hugentobler M, Brandle-Stroh M (1997) Sustainable urban development: a conceptual framework and its application. Urban Technol 4(2):85–99CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Richard CH, Bowen PA (1997) Sustainable construction: principle and a framework for attainment. Construct Manag Econ 15(3):223–239CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  6. 6.
    Singh RK, Murty HR, Gupta SK, Dikshit AK (2012) An overview of sustainability assessment methodologies. Ecol Indic 15(1):281–299CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  7. 7.
    Adinyira E, Oteng-Seifah S, Adjei-Kumi T (2007) A review of urban sustainability assessment methodologies. International conference on whole life urban sustainability and its assessment. Glasgow Caledonian University, GlasgowGoogle Scholar
  8. 8.
    Hal AV, Dulski B, Postel AM (2010) Reduction of CO2 emissions in houses of historic and visual importance. Sustainability 2(2):443–460CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  9. 9.
    McGranahan G, Satterthwaite D (2003) Urban centers: an assessment of sustainability. Ann Rev Environ Resour 28:243–274CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  10. 10.
    Muller MO, Stampfli A, Dold U, Hammer T (2011) Energy Autarky: a conceptual framework for sustainable regional development. Energy Policy 39(10):5800–5810CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  11. 11.
    Newton PW (2012) Liveable and sustainable? Socio-technical challenge for twenty-first-century cities. Urban Technol 19(1):81–102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  12. 12.
    Poveda CA, Lipsett MG (2011) A review of sustainability assessment and sustainability/environmental rating systems and credit weighting tools. Sustain Dev 4(6):36–55Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Stablo J, Winkel CR (2012) The integration of energy conservation into the political goal of renewable energy self-sufficiency – a German case study based on a longitudinal reconstruction. Sustainability 4(5):888–916CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Zavrl MS, Zeren MT (2010) Sustainability of urban infrastructures. Sustainability 2(9):2950–2964CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Han J, Fontanos P, Fukushi K, Herath S, Heeren N, Naso V, Cecchi C, Edwards P, Takeuchi K (2012) Innovation for sustainability: toward a sustainable urban future in industrialized cities. Sustain Sci 7(1):91–100CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  16. 16.
    Daido Y (1996) Nihongata no nyutaun [Japanese-Style New Town] (in Japanese). Keizai to Boeki [Economy and Trade] –translated by authors. 90:86–92Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Tama City (2011a) Kigyou yuuchishourei seido no goshoukai [Introduction of the welcome enterprises system] (in Japanese) –translated by authors. Accessed 26 Apr 2014
  18. 18.
    Tama City (2011b) Tamashi kosodate, kosodachi, kodomo pulan < kaiteiban>, 2011 [Tama City raising child, child growing, children plan < Revision>, 2011] (in Japanese), –translated by authors. Accessed 26 Apr 2014.
  19. 19.
    Matsuda S (2009) Jisedai ikusei shiensaku ni yottsute shuttusanikou ha takamaruka -vinettuto chousa niyoruseisakukouka no kentou [Is measures to support raising next-generation children effective? – estimates of political efficacy by using vignette survey] –translated by authors (in Japanese). Life Des Rep 1(2):16–23Google Scholar
  20. 20.
    Arai T (2011) Population projections for Onomichi City: 2011 (in Japanese). J Econ Manag Inf Sci Onomichi Univ Keizai Joho Ronshu 11(1):93–103Google Scholar
  21. 21.
    Fujii T (1999) Forecasting population of Osaka City by cohort-component method (in Japanese). Q J Econ Stud 22(2):25–37Google Scholar
  22. 22.
    Katayama N, Kaido K (2007) Characteristics and prediction of demographic structure in Suburban residential areas: case study of fifteen residential estates in Kani City, Gifu Prefecture (in Japanese). Urban Sci Stud 12:53–62Google Scholar
  23. 23.
    Yamaguchi K (1990) Jinkou suikei nyumon [Introduction to population estimates] (in Japanese) –translated by authors. Kokonshoin, Tokyo, pp 1–221Google Scholar
  24. 24.
    Tama City (2011c) Tamashi yoron chousa [Public opinion research of Tama City] –translated by authors (in Japanese). Accessed 26 Apr 2014
  25. 25.
    Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (2012) e-Stat: portal site of official statistics of Japan. do (Accessed 26 Apr 2014)
  26. 26.
    National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (2006) Population projection for Japan: 2006–2055 (in Japanese). Accessed 26 Apr 2014

Copyright information

© Springer Japan 2016

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Graduate School of System Design and ManagementKeio UniversityYokohamaJapan
  2. 2.Dept. of Industrial and Systems EngineeringAoyama Gakuin UniversitySagamihara-shiJapan

Personalised recommendations