Phase 3 of the Energy Transition (2030–2050)

  • Thomas Unnerstall
Chapter
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Abstract

In the introduction to this third part of the book, we commented that, from the macroeconomic perspective, no reliable statements can be made about phase 3 of the Energiewende from 2030 onward. There are three reasons for this:

  • It is not feasible to give cost estimates for the construction of RE plants over such a long period.

  • From 2030 on, the systemic consequences of the temporal volatility of RE electricity production will be fully brought to bear. Storage facilities must be built, exchange with foreign countries expanded, DSM measures realized and additional electricity applications installed on a larger scale, notably for the transportation and heating sectors. The costs and other macroeconomic implications cannot currently be predicted.

  • Other important parameters that would be required to provide at least a rough estimate from a macroeconomic perspective simply cannot be predicted today, not even in terms of trends: global market prices for hard coal and natural gas, capital costs and many other factors.

Keywords

Nuclear Power Plant Capital Cost Foreign Country Electricity Production Carbon Capture 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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In the introduction to this third part of the book, we commented that, from the macroeconomic perspective, no reliable statements can be made about phase 3 of the Energiewende from 2030 onward. There are three reasons for this:

  • It is not feasible to give cost estimates for the construction of RE plants over such a long period.

  • From 2030 on, the systemic consequences of the temporal volatility of RE electricity production will be fully brought to bear. Storage facilities must be built, exchange with foreign countries expanded, DSM measures realized and additional electricity applications installed on a larger scale, notably for the transportation and heating sectors. The costs and other macroeconomic implications cannot be predicted today.

  • Other important parameters that would be required to provide at least a rough estimate from a macroeconomic perspective equally cannot be predicted today, not even in terms of trends: global market prices for hard coal and natural gas, capital costs and many other factors.

However, one thing is clear. Given that the nuclear power plants will have been completely shut down in phase 2, the further expansion of renewable energies in this third phase will come at the full expense of the fossil fuel-fired power plants. This means CO2 emissions will decline much more rapidly in phase 3 than in phases 1 and 2—by 140–160 mio t according to plan.

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany 2017

Authors and Affiliations

  • Thomas Unnerstall
    • 1
  1. 1.StockstadtGermany

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