Der Einfluss verzerrter Selbsteinschätzung auf die Qualität von Prognosen

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Zusammenfassung

Diese Studie untersucht den Einfluss verzerrter Selbsteinschätzungen von Entscheidern auf die (relative) Qualität ihrer Prognosen. Der Fokus der Studie liegt auf dem Better-Than-Average-Effekt (BTA-Effekt) als Ursache für verzerrte Selbsteinschätzungen. Mittels eines Labor-Experimentes wird insbesondere untersucht, wie sich der BTA-Effekt auf die Anpassung einmal getätigter Prognosen an neue Informationen auswirkt. Im Experiment geben Teilnehmer eine anfängliche Prognose ab und erhalten daraufhin entscheidungsrelevante Informationen, um ihre Prognose entsprechend anzupassen. Wir stellen die Hypothesen auf, dass verzerrte Selbsteinschätzungen im Sinne des BTA-Effektes zwar keinen Einfluss auf die anfängliche Prognosequalität haben, dass sie sich jedoch negativ auf angepasste Prognosen auswirken, da sie die Anpassungsstärke an neue Informationen beeinflussen. Die Ergebnisse der Studie unterstützen die aufgestellten Hypothesen. Im Einklang mit bisherigen Studien finden wir keinen systematischen Zusammenhang der Selbsteinschätzung mit der Prognosequalität. Die Ergebnisse zeigen aber einen negativen Einfluss einer Selbstüberschätzung auf die Anpassungsstärke und auch auf die durchschnittliche Qualität der angepassten Prognosen. Wir folgern, dass eine verzerrte Selbsteinschätzung der Prognosequalität negative ökonomische Folgen bei der Revision von Prognosen nach sich ziehen kann. Die Studie kommt damit u. a. dem Appell von Dunning et al. (Psychol Sci Pub Interest 5(3):69–106, 2004) nach, die praktischen Konsequenzen einer verzerrten Selbsteinschätzung in den Fokus zu stellen.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Authors and Affiliations

  1. 1.Unternehmensführung und UnternehmensrechnungUniversität OsnabrückOsnabrückDeutschland

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