Summary
A comparison is made between regional distributions of lake ANC predicted by the mechanistic MAGIC model and the empirical Direct Distribution model. The MAGIC model is calibrated and applied to a set of lakes in the southernmost region of Norway. The MAGIC simulation is used to calculate the distribution of watershed neutralization fractions for the region as determined by the change in lake ANC values from their initial, preindustrial condition relative to the acid deposition input. The distribution of neutralization fractions is shown to be very similar to the F factor distribution, which measures the change in lake water calcium and magnesium relative to sulfate. The neutralization fraction distribution from MAGIC is characterized by its mean and variance, and these quantities are used by the Direct Distribution model to predict the initial distribution of ANC, which follows a lognormal probability curve. The initial distribution predicted by the Direct Distribution model is very similar in shape and location to that predicted by MAGIC. However, analysis of the MAGIC simulations indicates ongoing reductions in the mean of the regional neutralization fraction associated with losses in the base saturation of soils. These reductions must be considered if the empirical model is to provide predictions of future regional response which are consistent with those of the mechanistic model.
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References
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Labieniec, P.A., Small, M.J., Cosby, B.J. (1989). Regional Distributions of Lake Chemistry Predicted by Mechanistic and Empirical Lake Acidification Models. In: Kämäri, J., Brakke, D.F., Jenkins, A., Norton, S.A., Wright, R.F. (eds) Regional Acidification Models. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83994-8_14
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-83994-8_14
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