Practical Limits to Life Expectancy in France

  • S. J. Olshansky
Conference paper
Part of the Research and Perspectives in Longevity book series (RPL)

Abstract

The expected duration of life for a baby born in France in 1991 was 76.9 years – 72.9 years for males and 81.2 years for females (Couet and Tambay 1995). These figure are calculated from period life tables produced from age-specific death rates that prevailed in France from 1990–1992. Estimates of the duration of life based on period life tables are predicated on the assumption that babies born in a given year will experience, for the duration of their lives, the prevailing mortality risks observed at every age. When secular declines in total mortality are occurring, as they have been in France and other developed nations for most of the 20th century, estimates of life expectancy at birth using this method tend to underestimate the subsequent longevity of the birth cohort. Given the historical trend in declining death rates in France and other developed nations, and the expectation that they will continue to decline in the future, how much higher can life expectancy at birth be expected to rise beyond these period estimates? Is the measure of period life expectancy providing a reasonable estimate of future longevity, or is it possible that the actual life expectancy of babies born in France today will be considerably higher than is currently indicated by period life tables? Alternatively, how much higher can life expectancy at birth practically increase in France and other developed nations with life expectancy (for males and females combined) approaching 80 years?

Keywords

Life Expectancy Birth Cohort Life Table High Life Expectancy Actual Life Expectancy 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York 1997

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  • S. J. Olshansky

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