Operations Research ’91 pp 334-337 | Cite as
A Bayesian Approach for Estimating Infant Mortality in Developing Countries
Abstract
Mortality behaviour in a country is simply to be presented where reliable vital statistics data are available. This is not the case in most of developing countries. However, different direct and indirect methods of estimation are usually suggested to assess mortality experience either by adjusting the distorted official data or by employing data obtained from untraditional sources. An improved technique for estimating infant mortality level and pattern is introduced in this study. A Bayesian model for estimating infant mortality is suggested as a conveniet method for including all the prior information about the problem, and hence, to assure the best occupation of the available data.
Keywords
Infant Mortality Prior Information Bayesian Model Prior Function Conditional Posterior DistributionPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
- Box, G.E.P., and G.C. Tiao (1973). Bayesian Infrences in Statistical Analysis. Reading, Mass.: Addison. Wesley.Google Scholar
- Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics. Births and Deaths Statistics (Annual Publication), for the years 1971–1981. Cairo.Google Scholar
- Fienberg, S.E., and A. Zellner (1975). Studies in Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics. Amesterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company.Google Scholar
- Judge, G.G., et al. (1982). Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
- National Academy Press (1982). “The Estimation of Recent Trend in Fertility and Mortality in Egypt”. Report No.9, Washington.Google Scholar
- Sayed, H.A., and M. Ishak (1987). “Some Demographic Implications of a General Model to Study Infant Mortality”. Research Monograph Series No.16, Cairo: Cairo Demographic center.Google Scholar
- United Nations (1983). Indirect Techniques for Demographic Estimation. Manual X. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, Population Studies No.81.New York.Google Scholar
- United Nations (1983). Demographic Year Book. (1980–1987). Department of International and Social Affairs, Statistical office. New York.Google Scholar
- Vallin, J., and J.H. Pollard, and L. Heligman. (1984). Methodologies for Collection and Analysis of Mortality Data. Belgium: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population.Google Scholar
- World Healh Organisation (1977). Manual of Mortality Analysis. Division of Health Statistics Dissemination of Statistical Information, Geneva.Google Scholar
- Zellner, A. (1984). Basic Issues in Econometrics. Chicago: The Unversity of Chicago Press.Google Scholar