Assessment of Social Impact Costs and Social Impact Magnitude from Breakdowns in Critical Infrastructures

  • Mats B-O Larsson
  • Gunnar Björkman
  • Mathias Ekstedt
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 7722)


The purpose of this paper is to describe a new and innovative method for the calculation of societal consequences from breakdowns in critical infrastructures. Both a Social Impact Cost is calculated as lost Gross Domestic Product and non-economic consequences are quantified. For the non-economic consequences a new measure is introduced called Social Impact Magnitude that resembles the Richter scale. The paper describes the methods used and the design of the software tool developed for this purpose. The second part of the paper includes some practical examples how the societal consequences have been calculated for a number of power outage scenarios. Future potential development to cover other types of critical infrastructures and dependencies between infrastructures are indicated at the end.


Critical infrastructures Impact analysis Impact Costs Impact Magnitude Societal consequences Virtual society Blackout scenarios Restoration Load profiles Outage assessment SCADA security Infrastructure dependence 


Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.


  1. 1.
  2. 2.
  3. 3.
  4. 4.
    Kjolle, G.H., Samdahl, K., Kvitastein, O.A.: Customer Costs Related to Interruptions and Voltage Problems: Methodology and Results. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems 23 (2008)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  5. 5.
    Alvehag, K.: Impact of Dependencies in Risk Assessments of Power Distribution Systems. KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (2008)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Larsson, M.B.-O.: he Network Performance Assessment Model A new framework of regulating the Electricity Network Companies. KTH, Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm (2005)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    Carlsson, F., Martinsson, P.: Kostnader av elavbrott, en studie av svenska elkunder (Social Impact Costs, a study of Swedish electricity customers, In Swedish) (Vol. Rapport 06:15). Elforsk (2006)Google Scholar
  8. 8.
    Svenska Kraftnät (Swedish Transmission System operator). Stamnätets tekniskt-ekonomiska dimensionering (In Swedish, The technical/economical design of the transmission power grid) (vol. 113). Svenska kraftnät, Stockholm (2009) Google Scholar
  9. 9.
    Larsson, M. B.-O. Consequence and cost analysis of SCADA systems vulnerabilities, vol. 3.3. The Viking Project, Åhus (2012),
  10. 10.
    Eurostat Statistical Books, Principal European Economic Indicators A statistical guide. Eurostat, European Commission (2009)Google Scholar
  11. 11.
    The Outlook for Energy A View to 2030. Exxon Mobil (2030)Google Scholar
  12. 12.
    Ciarreta, A., Zarraga, A.: Economic Growth and Electricity Consumption in 12 European Countries: A Causality Analysis Using Panel Data. In: 6th International Conference on the European Energy Market, EEM 2009. IEEE, Spain (2009)Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Böhm, D.C.: Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Causality Study using Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Analysis. In: 5th International Conference on European Electricity Market, EEM 2008. IEEE, Germany (2008)Google Scholar
  14. 14.
    Agneholm, E.: Cold Load Pick-up, PhD thesis. Gothenburg: Chalmers University of Technology, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering (1999) ISBN 91-7197-756-2 ISSN 0346-718XGoogle Scholar
  15. 15.
    Frost, C., Barck-Holst, S., Ånäs, P.: Acceptabla elavbrott? Fyra strategier för säker elförsörjning (Unacceptable outages? Four stratgies for resilant power supply. In: Swedish) (vols. FOI-R–1163–SE). Totalförsvarets Forskningsinstitut (2004)Google Scholar
  16. 16.
  17. 17.
    Melsa, J., Schultz, D.: Linear Control Systems. McGraw-Hill Book Company (1969)Google Scholar
  18. 18.
    VIKING Consortium, Delivery 3.1: Vulnerability assessment of SCADA systems (2011)Google Scholar
  19. 19.
    Richter, C.F.: An instrumental earthquake magnitude scale. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 25(1-32) (1936)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Mats B-O Larsson
    • 1
  • Gunnar Björkman
    • 2
  • Mathias Ekstedt
    • 3
  1. 1.MML Analys & Strategi ABÅhusSweden
  2. 2.ABB AGMannheimGermany
  3. 3.Industrial Information and Control SystemsKTH - Royal Institute of TechnologyStockholmSweden

Personalised recommendations