Air Traffic Incidents Analysis with the Use of Fuzzy Sets
In safety, reliability as well as risk analysis and management, information often is uncertain and imprecise. The approach to air incident analysis under uncertain and imprecise information presented in our paper is inspired by the possibility theory. Notably, in such analyses these are both: static and dynamic components that have to be included. As part of this work, static analysis of a serious incident has been performed. In order to do this, probability scale which is based on fuzzy set theory has been given. The scenarios of transformation of incident into accident have been found and their fuzzy probabilities have been calculated. Finally, it has been shown that elimination of one of premises for transformation of the incident into accident significantly reduces the possibility of this transformation.
Keywordsserious incident fuzzy probability events tree fuzzy inference air traffic safety
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
- 3.Blom, H., Corker, K., Stroeve, S.: On the integration of human performance and collision risk simulation models of runway operation. National Aerospace Laboratory NLR, Report NLR-TP-2006-682 (2006)Google Scholar
- 5.Civil Aviation Authority, Air Traffic Safety Requirements CAP 670, CAA Safety Regulation Group (2012)Google Scholar
- 6.Kacprzyk, J.: Fuzzy Sets in Systems Analysis. National Scientific Publishers, Warsaw (1986) (in Polish)Google Scholar
- 8.Klich, E.: Flight Safety in Air Transport, Exploitation Problems Library, Exploitation Technology Institute - PIB, Radom (2011) (in Polish)Google Scholar
- 10.Onisawa, T., Kacprzyk, J. (eds.): Reliability and Safety Analysis under Fuzziness. Physica-Verlag, Springer, Heidelberg (1995)Google Scholar
- 11.Rajati, M.R., Mendel, J.M., Wu, D.: Solving Zadeh’s Magnus challenge problem on linguistic probabilities via linguistic weighted averages. In: IEEE Int. Conf. Fuzzy Systems, FUZZ, June 27-30 (2011)Google Scholar
- 12.Rutkowska, D., Piliński, M., Rutkowski, L.: Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms and Fuzzy Systems. Scientific Publishers PWN, Warsaw-Lodz (1997) (in Polish)Google Scholar
- 13.Safety Management Manual (SMM), 1st edn. International Civil Aviation Organization, Doc 9859, AN/460 (2006) Google Scholar
- 14.Shortle, J., Xie, Y., Chen, C., Donohue, G.: Simulating Collision Probabilities of Landing Airplanes at Non-towered Airports. Transactions of the Society for Computer Simulation 79(10), 1–17 (2003)Google Scholar
- 15.Skorupski, J.: Method of analysis of the relation between serious incident and accident in air traffic. In: Berenguer, Grall, Soares (eds.) Advances in Safety, Reliability and Risk Management, pp. 2393–2401. Taylor & Francis Group (2012)Google Scholar
- 18.Urząd Lotnictwa Cywilnego (Civil Aviation Authority of the Republic of Poland): Statement No. 78 of President of Civil Aviation Authority from 18th of September 2009 on air event No. 344/07, Warszawa (2009) (in Polish) Google Scholar
- 19.Weather Underground Internet Service, http://polish.wunderground.com