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Air Traffic Incidents Analysis with the Use of Fuzzy Sets

  • Michał Lower
  • Jan Magott
  • Jacek Skorupski
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 7894)

Abstract

In safety, reliability as well as risk analysis and management, information often is uncertain and imprecise. The approach to air incident analysis under uncertain and imprecise information presented in our paper is inspired by the possibility theory. Notably, in such analyses these are both: static and dynamic components that have to be included. As part of this work, static analysis of a serious incident has been performed. In order to do this, probability scale which is based on fuzzy set theory has been given. The scenarios of transformation of incident into accident have been found and their fuzzy probabilities have been calculated. Finally, it has been shown that elimination of one of premises for transformation of the incident into accident significantly reduces the possibility of this transformation.

Keywords

serious incident fuzzy probability events tree fuzzy inference air traffic safety 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2013

Authors and Affiliations

  • Michał Lower
    • 1
  • Jan Magott
    • 1
  • Jacek Skorupski
    • 2
  1. 1.Faculty of ElectronicsWrocław University of TechnologyWrocławPoland
  2. 2.Faculty of TransportWarsaw University of TechnologyWarsawPoland

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