On Verification of Forecasting Capability of the FlaIR Regional Model in Landslide Early Warning
Over recent years, the link which exists between meteoric precipitation and terrain mobility has been the focus of many studies, even in the hydrologic and hydraulic sectors. These studies are the logical consequence of the close connection between the occurrence of each type of terrain instability and rains which, directly or indirectly, influence a slope. The analytical approaches which can be found in the specific technical literature differ greatly in terms of methodology and formulation.
The paper describes analytical work on the hydrogeological events which have occurred in the Region of Calabria over the winters from 2008 to 2010. Empirical-hydrologic models were adopted to analyse the landslides. In fact, use was made of the FLaIR model which, starting from rainfall analysis, allows the critical triggering threshold to be identified. Comparison was made of the events foreseen by the model and those which actually occurred, estimating the number of Correct Alarms (CA), Missed Alarms (MA) and False Alarms (FA), which are the principal indicators for evaluating how efficacious and efficient the various models are.
The results presented in this work show that the model is highly capable of predicting the different events, with a limited number of MA.
KeywordsLandslides Rainfall Hydrological model Early warning
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