ECHAM5/MPI General Circulation Model Simulations of Teleconnection Indices Over Europe
In this paper, a study of potential future changes of the atmospheric circulation over Europe is presented. Atmospheric circulation is studied through two teleconnection indices, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index – which mostly affects the climate of western Europe – and the North Sea-Caspian Pattern (NCP) Index – mainly affecting eastern Mediterranean and the Balkan Peninsula. Firstly, the ECHAM5/MPI (Max Planck Institute) General Circulation Model’s (GCM’s) simulations for the two teleconnection indices are evaluated against NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data for the control run period 1971–2000, both in a temporal and a spatial scale. Secondly, the GCM’s future simulations are studied. The main goals of this study are to validate the ECHAM5 GCM regarding the two teleconnection indices under consideration, and consequently to examine whether the current dominant circulation patterns change or not throughout the twenty-first century.
KeywordsGeopotential Height North Atlantic Oscillation Negative Phasis North Atlantic Oscillation Index Future Period
- Kalnay E et al (1996) The NCEP/NCAR 40-year reanalysis project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:437–470Google Scholar
- Roeckner E, Lautenschlager M, Schneider H (2006) IPCC-AR4 MPI-ECHAM5_T63L31 MPI-OM_GR1.5 L40 SRESA1B run no.3: atmosphere 6 HOUR values MPImet/MaD Germany. World Data Center for Climate, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, GermanyGoogle Scholar
- Walker GT (1924) Correlations in seasonal variations of weather IX. Mem Ind Meteorol Dept 24:275–332Google Scholar