Hedging with Futures: Multivariante Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH
Chapter
First Online:
Abstract
In this paper, we apply three multivariate GARCH models for estimation of dynamic hedge ratios. We provide an empirical comparison of the effectiveness of those models in the Russian and foreign financial markets. Dynamics and interdependence between futures’ and spot prices of assets are captured by vector error correction models; volatilities and correlations are modeled by dynamic conditional correlation multivariate GARCH.
Keywords
multivariate GARCH dynamic conditional correlation dynamic hedge ratios Russian financial marketPreview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
- Newey W. K., McFadden D. (1994). Large sample estimation and hypothesis testing. Handbook of Econometrics, Vol. 4, Elsevier North-Holland.Google Scholar
- Bystrom H. N. E., (2003). The hedging performance of electricity futures on the Nordic power exchange. Applied Economics, 35, 1–11.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Bollerslev T., Engle R., and Wooldridge J.M., (1988). A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time Varying Covariances. Journal of Political Economy, 96, 116–131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Bollerslev T., (1990). Modelling the Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH model. Review of Economics and Statistics, 52, 5–59.Google Scholar
- Brooks C., Henry O. T., Persand G., (2002). The Effect of Asymmetries on Optimal Hedge Ratios. Journal of Business, 75, 333–352.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Cappiello, L., Engle R. F., Sheppard K., (2006). Asymmetric Dynamics in the Correlations of Global Equity and Bond Returns. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 4, 537–572.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Ederington L. H., (1979). The Hedging Performances of the New Futures Markets. Journal of Finance, 34, 157–170.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Engle R. F. Kroner K. F., (1995). Multivariate simultaneous generalized ARCH. Econometric Theory, 11, 122–150.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Engle R. and Sheppard K., (2001). Theoretical and Empirical Properties of Dynamic Conditional Correlation Multivariate GARCH. NBER Working Paper 8554.Google Scholar
- Engle R. F., (2002). Dynamic Conditional Correlation. A Simple Class of Multivariate GARCH Models. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 339–350.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hsiang-tai Lee, Jonathan Yoder, (2007). Optimal hedging with a regime-switching timevarying correlation GARCH model. The Journal of Futures Markets, 27, No. 5, 495–516.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Hull J. (2006). Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 6th ed. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ.Google Scholar
- Johnson, L. L., (1960). The theory of hedging and speculation in commodity futures. Review of Economic Studies, 27, 139–151.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lien D., Tse Y. K., Tsui A. K. C., (2002). Evaluating the Hedging performance of the Constant- Correlation GARCH model. Applied Financial Economics, 12, 791–798.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Lutkepohl H. (2005). New Introduction to Multiple Time Series Analysis. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.Google Scholar
- Myers, R. J. and Thompson, S.R. (1989). Generalized Optimal Hedge Ratio Estimation. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 71, 858–867.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Park H., Bera, A., (1987). Interest rate volatility, basis, and heteroscedasticity in hedging mortgages. American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association 15, 79–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Skintzi V. D., Xanthopolous-Sisinis S., (2007). Evaluation of correlation forecasting models for risk management. Journal of forecasting, 26, 497–526.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Tse Y., Tsui A. (2002). A multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model with time-varying correlations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 20, 351–362.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
- Yang W., Allen D., (2004). Multivariate GARCH hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness in Australian futures markets. Accounting and Finance, 45, 301–321.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Copyright information
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012