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Volcanic Hazard Estimations for Volcán de Colima

  • Servando De la Cruz-ReynaEmail author
  • Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas
  • Lorenzo Borselli
  • Damiano Sarocchi
Chapter
Part of the Active Volcanoes of the World book series (AVOLCAN)

Abstract

Volcán de Colima has one of North America’s highest rates of eruption, producing a wide range of eruptions ranging from effusive episodes to Plinian phases and sector collapses. Such activity potentially endangers over 350,000 people dwelling within the reach of volcanic products and runouts. To widen the hazard assessment derived from this activity, a statistical analysis of the volcano past events must include as many historically and geologically reported eruptions and debris avalanches as possible. However, in doing this, factors such as the complex dependence of flank collapse avalanches with the eruptive activity and other external factors, the increased underreporting with age and the uncertainties in the magnitudes, intensities, and dates of past activity, as well as the possible time dependence of the rate of eruptions must be accounted for. This chapter describes the statistical methods used to estimate the probabilities of different hazard scenarios for Volcán de Colima whilst addressing those factors.

Keywords

Colima volcano Volcanic hazards Eruption statistics Volcano flank collapse Debris avalanches Extreme volcanic events 

Notes

Acknowledgements

We are indebted to the reviewers, Mark Bebbington and David Pyle, and to Nick Varley, editor of this volume, whose comments and suggestion greatly helped to improve this manuscript. This research has been partially financed by DGAPA-PAPIIT-UNAM project IN106312. We are grateful for this support.

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019

Authors and Affiliations

  • Servando De la Cruz-Reyna
    • 1
    Email author
  • Ana Teresa Mendoza-Rosas
    • 2
  • Lorenzo Borselli
    • 3
  • Damiano Sarocchi
    • 3
  1. 1.Instituto de GeofísicaUniversidad Nacional Autónoma de MéxicoMéxico D.F.Mexico
  2. 2.CONACYT – Centro de Ingeniería y Desarrollo IndustrialQuerétaroMexico
  3. 3.Instituto de Geologia/Fac. de IngenieríaUniversidad Autónoma de San Luis Potosí–UASLPSan Luis PotosíMexico

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