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Applications of Social Systems Modeling to Political Risk Management

  • Gnana K. Bharathy
  • Barry Silverman
Part of the Intelligent Systems Reference Library book series (ISRL, volume 33)

Abstract

Risk is inexplicably linked to complex inter-related structural and behavioral factors. Of these, human factors tend to be overarching and predominant. Any model that would assist with exploring the inter-relationships among structural and human factors would be immensely valuable to risk management. A social system model constructed with a valid set of software agent framework and complete with factions, institutions and other organizational descriptors, all based on best-of-breed social science theories, can act as the desired testbed to evaluate effects that may arise from alternative courses of action. Through our past case studies, we describe in this article, how social systems modeling and associated intelligent system tools could be applied to assess and manage political risk (and by extension other social systems based risks). We also enumerate the challenges of such a testbed and describes best-of-breed theories drawn from across the social sciences and synthesized and implemented in an agent-based framework. These predictions are examined in a real world cases (Bangladesh) where the agent models are subjected to a validity check and the political risks are estimated.

Keywords

risk management socio-cultural simulation agent-based models social systems political risk assessment white-box models for risk 

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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2012

Authors and Affiliations

  • Gnana K. Bharathy
    • 1
  • Barry Silverman
    • 1
  1. 1.Ackoff Collaboratory for Advancement of Systems Approaches (ACASA)University of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphia

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