Simulation of Microburst Escape with Probabilistic Pilot Model

Abstract

Simulation of large aircraft approach and landing in microburst wind shear was studied for flight safety research. A real-time flight dynamics model with wind shear effects was built based on Boeing747 modeling data. A parameterized three-dimensional microburst model was formulated by vortex ring and Rankine vortex principle. Further more, a parameterized human pilot model was developed to simulate pilots’ control behavior during microburst encountering. A pilot-aircraft-microburst environment model was constructed for further study. Since pilots would have variable control behavior, a group of pilot was modeled by treating the characteristic parameters as random variables. To study the safety of pitch guidance strategy recommended by FAA, the Monte Carlo Simulation was adopted to obtain a numerical approximation of the probability density function of the minimum altitude. The results indicate that the 3-D microburst model can generate wind vectors with high fidelity. The dynamics model with wind shear effects is reasonable and valid. Credible and valuable conclusions of escape strategy and safety can be acquired by Monte Carlo simulation.