Advertisement

Stochastic Modelling of the Effects of Interdependencies between Critical Infrastructure

  • Robin Bloomfield
  • Lubos Buzna
  • Peter Popov
  • Kizito Salako
  • David Wright
Part of the Lecture Notes in Computer Science book series (LNCS, volume 6027)

Abstract

An approach to Quantitative Interdependency Analysis, in the context of Large Complex Critical Infrastructures, is presented in this paper. A Discrete state–space, Continuous–time, Stochastic Process models the operation of critical infrastructure, taking interdependencies into account. Of primary interest are the implications of both model detail (that is, level of model abstraction) and model parameterisation for the study of dependencies. Both of these factors are observed to affect the distribution of cascade–sizes within and across infrastructure.

Keywords

Interdependency Analysis Critical Infrastructure Cascade–size Distribution Continuous – time Stochastic Process 

Preview

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.

References

  1. 1.
    Bloomfield, R., et al.: Report on Service Oriented Interdependency Analysis (IRRIIS Project Deliverable D2.2.4). City University London, London (2007)Google Scholar
  2. 2.
    Bloomfield, R., et al.: Infrastructure interdependency analysis: an introductory research review. Adelard, London (2009)Google Scholar
  3. 3.
    Boccaletti, S., et al.: Complex networks: Structure and dynamics. Physics Reports 424, 175–308 (2006)CrossRefMathSciNetGoogle Scholar
  4. 4.
    Reka, A., Barabasi, A.L.: Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Reviews of Modern Physics, 74 (2002)Google Scholar
  5. 5.
    Pederson, P., et al.: Critical Infrastructure Interdependency Modeling: A Survey of U.S. and International Research (2006)Google Scholar
  6. 6.
    Schläpfer, M., Kessler, T., Kröger, W.: Reliability Analysis of Electric Power Systems Using an Object-oriented Hybrid Modeling Approach. In: Proceedings of the 16th Power Systems Computation Conference, Glasgow (2008)Google Scholar
  7. 7.
    U.S.-Canada Power System Outage Task Force. Final Report on the August 14, 2003 Blackout in the United States and Canada: Causes and Recommendations (2003), https://reports.energy.gov/
  8. 8.
    Board, B.M.I.I.: The Buncefield Incident December 11, 2005 The final report of the Major Incident Investigation Board (2008), http://www.buncefieldinvestigation.gov.uk/index.htm
  9. 9.
    IRRIIS. Integrated Risk Reduction of Information-based Infrastructure Systems (EU project, 2006–2009)Google Scholar
  10. 10.
    IRRIIS deliverable D2.2.4., Report On Service Oriented Interdependency Analysis (2007), http://www.irriis.org
  11. 11.
    IRRIIS deliverable D2.2.2., Tools and techniques for interdependency analysis (2007), http://www.irriis.org/File.aspx?lang=2&oiid=9138&pid=572
  12. 12.
    IRRIIS deliverable D2.2.6, Preliminary Interdependency Analysis (PIA) as a service-oriented approach towards LCCI Interdependency Analysis (report and prototype) (2009)Google Scholar
  13. 13.
    Rinaldi, S.M., Peerenboom, J.P., Kelly, T.K.: Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies. IEEE Control Systems Magazine 21(6), 11–25 (2001)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
  14. 14.
    Pearl, J.: Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems. Morgan Kaufmann, Palo Alto (1988)Google Scholar
  15. 15.
    Sanders, W.H., et al.: The Mobius Manual (2008)Google Scholar
  16. 16.
    Sanders, W.H., Meyer, J.F.: Stochastic Activity Networks: Formal Definitions and Concepts. In: Lectures on Formal Methods and Performance Analysis, Berg en Dal, The Netherlands. First EEF/Euro Summer School on Trends in Computer Science. Springer, Berlin (2001)Google Scholar
  17. 17.
    Courtney, T., et al.: The Möbius Modeling Environment. In: Tools of the 2003 Illinois International Multiconference on Measurement, Modelling, and Evaluation of Computer-Communication Systems (2003)Google Scholar

Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Robin Bloomfield
    • 1
    • 2
  • Lubos Buzna
    • 3
  • Peter Popov
    • 1
  • Kizito Salako
    • 1
  • David Wright
    • 1
  1. 1.Centre for Software ReliabilityCity University LondonLondonUK
  2. 2.Adelard LLP.LondonUK
  3. 3.University of ZilinaZilinaSlovakia

Personalised recommendations