Piecewise Analysis and Prediction of Spring Flow Based ON GM(1,1) Model

  • Yonghong Hao
  • Lixia Zhang
  • Ting Wei
  • Xuemeng Wang
Chapter
Part of the Understanding Complex Systems book series (UCS)

Abstract

One of the largest springs in North China, the Liulin Karst Springs, has been decaying since 1950s. We introduced the piecewise analytical concept to GM (1, 1) model focusing on analysis and prediction of Liulin Karst Springs discharge. We divided the spring discharge processes into two phases: pre-1973 and post-1973. In the first phase (i.e. 1957-1974) the spring discharge was affected by climate change and in the second phase (i.e.1973-2007) the spring discharge was influenced by both climate change and anthropogenic activities. In the first phase, spring flow was simulated by the grey system GM (1, 1) decomposition model, then the effects of climate change were modeled. By extrapolating the model, we acquired a calculation of the spring discharge in the second phase solely under the effects of climate change.

Keywords

Coal Mining Karst Aquifer Spring Discharge Decomposition Model Karst System 
These keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.
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Copyright information

© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010

Authors and Affiliations

  • Yonghong Hao
    • 1
  • Lixia Zhang
    • 2
  • Ting Wei
    • 3
  • Xuemeng Wang
    • 4
  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Water Environment and ResourcesTianjin Normal UniversityTianjinP.R. China
  2. 2.College of managementTianjin Normal UniversityTianjinPR China
  3. 3.National Marine Data & Information ServiceTianjinPR China
  4. 4.Institute of Agriculture Resources Survey of Shanxi ProvinceTaiyuanPR China

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